Chuck Samples breaks down NASCAR’s Race for the Chase
By CHUCK SAMPLES
ISL Correspondent
Who has the best chance of winning the NASCAR Sprint Cup this year?
I know there is still one more race left before the field is settled, but here are my thoughts for those already in the field (and some of the racers going for the final two wild card spots):
Wild card racers. Who’s in? Who’s out?
In: Tony Stewart. Smoke has to avoid an early disaster at Richmond, and he hasn’t done well the past three weeks, finishing 22nd at Atlanta, 27th at Bristol and 32nd at Michigan. However, the guess here is he’s at least 15th Saturday night, and that should be good enough.
In: Kasey Kahne. This is arguably Kahne’s best season with two wins under his belt. His performance the past few weeks, though, has ranged from a second-place at Pocono to 23rd last week. A top-five finish, coupled with a middle-of-the-road run by Stewart, may flip the two racers in the standings. Early trouble Saturday and Kahne’s chances are done.
Out: Kyle Busch. The past four weeks could not have come at a better time for Busch, who has three Top-10 finishes during that stretch. Currently sitting 12th, Busch needs a good run and some help — and I’m not so sure he gets it.
In: Jeff Gordon. Something tells me he’s set to put in a huge race in Richmond and slide past Busch for the last wild card. Don’t ask me what it is because I don’t really know myself.
Out: Carl Edwards. Every racer not named Jimmie Johnson has “one of those years” where nothing seems to work right. This is that year for Edwards.
Chase qualifiers. What are the final standings?
12: Denny Hamlin. He has four wins — and five finishes of 25th or worse. He’s definitely trending up, but I’m not sold it continues through the Chase.
11. Martin Truex, Jr. Needs more showings like Atlanta last weekend, especially after being in position to win last weekend.
10: Kasey Kahne. Top 10 finish sets Kahne up with momentum for 2013.
9. Jeff Gordon. Gets in the Chase, but still stuck near the middle of the pack by the time it’s all over.
8. Clint Bowyer. Mr. Consistency needs at least three wins to be at or near the top. My guess is those three races turn into Top 10s, not victories.
7. Kevin Harvick. Back-to-back third-place finishes have Harvick hungry for more. Not going to happen.
6. Greg Biffle. Current points leader finished 16th last year. It would be a disappointment for him to slip, but that’s what I anticipate.
5. Matt Kenseth. Solid almost all year. Nothing changes once the Chase begins.
4. Tony Stewart. Finalizing Chase position late in the regular season jumpstarts Stewart.
3. Brad Keselowski. He’s been close before, finishing fifth last year, and once again he’ll be close to the top.
2. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Best season in years will fall just short of Earnhardt’s ultimate goal.
1. Jimmie Johnson. What, you were expecting somebody else? Yes, he’s back on top after last year’s thrilling Chase where his five-year reign ended.
Your thoughts? What’s your order? Do you think we blew it? Let us know!
