Griffiths: Wolverines look to take control of Big Ten Legends vs. NU
By DOUG GRIFFITHS
ISL Correspondent
One look at Saturday’s Big Ten schedule and it’s easy to decipher that we could be entering the month of November and both divisions could for all practical purposes be sewn up.
That scenario will indeed unfold if Michigan is able to win Saturday at Nebraska. A Wolverine win in Lincoln would give them likely a two-game lead over everyone in the Legends Division (assuming Iowa loses at Northwestern as expected) with just four contests remaining.
If, however, the Cornhuskers, who will likely be playing without star running back Rex Burkhead once again, is able to hold serve on its home turf, we could be in store for quite a race down the stretch in the Legends.
Beating Michigan might be a tall order for Nebraska even though the game is in Memorial Stadium. As you know, the Wolverines seem to have really hit their stride and have all but completely shut down their first three Big Ten opponents — Purdue, Illinois and Michigan State. Those three aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts, but to hold them to an average of 7.7 points per game is impressive nonetheless.
Michigan was the highest ranked Big Ten team in the preseason (at No. 8) and picked to win the conference and things are starting to pan out that way. It really looks like the Wolverines’ September tests against Alabama and Notre Dame, two teams currently ranked among the top five, helped the Maize and Blue really shine in what’s a bad year for the Big Ten.
If Nebraska wins, it has a great chance to be playing in Indianapolis in December in the Big Ten Championship Game. It will own tiebreakers over Michigan and Northwestern and has a very favorable schedule the rest of the way with road trips to Michigan State and Iowa and home dates against Penn State and Minnesota.
As for the Leaders Division, Wisconsin and its fans should already be booking hotel rooms in Indy. The Badgers enjoy a two-game lead over every eligible team in their division and will wrap this thing up in a few weeks.
There are four teams, three of which reside in the Leaders Division, that are looking for their first Big Ten win one month into conference action. Two of those teams will notch Big Ten win No. 1 this week because they play each other as Purdue is at Minnesota and Indiana travels to Illinois. Get excited!
Now that you have a good idea of how things are shaping up in the less-than-impressive Big Ten, IndySportsLegends.com provides you with a guide to know what league games to watch and the ones that aren’t DVR worthy.
(Last week I was perfect picking Big Ten games, but stumbled when IU couldn’t hold its lead at Navy. As we brace for the final Saturday in October play, I can stick out my chest a little more as my winning percentage is a robust 82 percent — as my overall record is 56-12 this season.)
Game-Of-The-Week
#20 Michigan (5-2, 3-0) @ Nebraska (5-2, 2-1)
Saturday
8 p.m.
ESPN2
Lincoln, Neb. (Memorial Stadium 81,091)
As big as the Purdue-Wisconsin was a few weeks back in terms of division ramifications, the game in Lincoln is just as large for the Legends Division.
If defense truly wins championships, Michigan will beat Nebraska. The Wolverines’ D, which is 10th in the FBS in yardage allowed (286 per game), is good and getting better now that it doesn’t have to play the likes of Alabama. Michigan is surrendering just 16.4 points per game and will get a good test this week when you consider Nebraska is the top-scoring team in the league, putting up 41.6 points per outing. Those numbers might be a little skewed in the Cornhuskers’ favor though because they haven’t faced as stout as a defense as they are about to in the Big Blue.
If Nebraska is to win, it will have to run the ball well, something it has done all season long — to the tune of 279 yards per game (No. 1 in the Big Ten). It could, too, as Michigan isn’t great by any means at stopping the run, allowing 143 yards per game to rank seventh in the league.
The problem for NU will be it may be without Rex Burkhead and even if he plays, he won’t be close to 100 percent. Sure Ameer Abdullah is a talented back, who has proven he can eclipse the 100-yard rushing mark in game, but Burkhead is the heart and soul of the Cornhuskers and without him its hard envisioning them winning even with the game being played in Big Red Country.
Making things even more challenging for Nebraska and in particular QB Taylor Martinez is the fact that Michigan is very salty against the pass. The Wolverines rank fourth in the nation in pass defense, permitting a mere 143 yards through the air.
Nebraska’s defense, on the other hand, has proven to be vulnerable. It allowed 36 points to UCLA, 30 to Wisconsin and 63 to Ohio State.
Furthermore, the Cornhuskers needed fourth-quarter rallies in their last two victories to survive games against Wisconsin and Northwestern.
Don’t expect such heroics this time out from Nebraska as Denard Robinson and Co. win their fourth in a row and all but punch their ticket to Indy. Go Blue, 31-20.
Must-See TV
#9 Ohio State (8-0, 4-0) @ Penn State (5-2, 3-0)
Saturday
5:30 p.m.
ESPN
University Park, Pa. (Beaver Stadium 106,572)
It’s the Ineligible Bowl as neither team can participate in the post-season due to past indiscretions.
The game does feature two red-hot teams. Penn State has won five straight. Ohio State is perfect on the season after surviving an overtime scare from Purdue in a game that the Boilermakers gift-wrap to the Buckeyes.
OSU QB Braxton Miller will return to action after sitting out the fourth quarter and being taken to the hospital against Purdue. He said he’s never been hurt like that in a game after he was slammed to the turf by Boilermaker cornerback Josh Johnson, which was a legal play.
Now, the question becomes just how effective Miller will be against a Penn State defense that is better than the Purdue defense he faced last week the one that held him and the Buckeye offense pretty much in check (Miller’s offense had 14 points when he left and he completed just 9-of-20 passes for 113 yards with an interception and he ran for 47 yards a TD).
The Nittany Lions are playing impressive defense, having only allowed more than 24 points in a game once this season (a 39-28 win over Northwestern). They gave up 24 in a loss to Ohio, but besides those two opponents, no one has scored more than 17 points against them.
Keep in mind, the Nittany Lions have held opponents to 15.7 points per game this season, 13th in the nation. In addition, they have also allowed just 3.4 yards per carry (27th in the nation) and four rushing touchdowns. It’s a defense that has held opposing quarterbacks to 6.0 yards per pass attempt (tied for 20th in the nation).
Overall, this Penn State team has really rallied behind Bill O’Brien, who has made a strong case for not only Big Ten Coach-of-the-Year, but perhaps national honors as well.
Ohio State has proven to be very vulnerable the last two weeks against Purdue and Indiana, and could be even more so this week as expect Miller to still be a little shaken from what happened to him physically against Purdue. I just think he has to be less than 100 percent and that’s not good for a player that is pretty much OSU’s entire offense (he has 141 carries for 959 yards and 10 TDs this season).
If you needed more proof to go with the home team, consider this: Penn State QB Matt McGloin is playing like the seasoned veteran he is. He leads the Big Ten in passing, averaging 255.4 yards per game, and has thrown 14 touchdown passes and just two interceptions.
McGloin has helped Penn State’s offense get rolling recently as it has scored 112 points combined in the last three games.
Beaver Stadium should be a madhouse, which will definitely help the Lions’ cause. We Are Penn State! 28-20.
May Be Worth A Look-see
Michigan State (4-4, 1-3) @ Wisconsin (6-2, 3-1)
Saturday
3:30 p.m.
ABC/ESPN2
Madison, Wis. (Camp Randall Stadium 80,321)
Michigan State is having one of those ˜What if’ type seasons. The Spartans are a play here and a play there away from being 7-1 instead of .500.
The Spartans have lost three of their last four games by a total of 6 points.
Now, the question with Mark Dantonio’s club is, ‘How can MSU bounce back after gut-wrenching losses to Iowa and Michigan the last two weeks?’
It’s hard to see how the Green and White can bounce back enough to go into Madison and beat a Wisconsin team that all of a sudden looks a lot different than the one that struggled to beat Northern Iowa and Utah State.
Bret Bielema’s team is really rolling, having won three in a row and five of its last six games to seize control of the Leaders Division.
In Big Ten play, Wisconsin has scored 30 or more points in three of its four games and put up 27 in the other game. Plus, the Badgers have held their last three opponents to 14 points or less.
As long as their defense contains MSU running back Le’Veon Bell, who has pretty much been a one-man show this season, Wisconsin won have any problem with a deflated Spartan team.
The Badgers have too much momentum going to lose this home game. Montee Ball and Co. get the job done, Badgers 28-14.
No One Cares
(This is a new category this week, and one that I think is very fitting considering the teams)
Indiana (2-5, 0-3) @ Illinois (2-5, 0-3)
Saturday
Noon
BTN
Champaign, Ill. (Memorial Stadium 60,670)
Count how many empty seats there are at Memorial Stadium Saturday for Illinois’ Homecoming. There will be thousands.
It hasn’t taken long for the faithful to turn against Illini coach Tim Beckman. Donors are openly voicing their displeasure with not only him, but also the school’s AD, too. That’s what happens when you’ve lost four games in a row and aren’t competitive in any one of them.
Anyway you slice it, the Illini are bad. They struggle scoring and they have a tough time stopping opponents from scoring.
What has to be concerning from Illinois’ standpoint is, it is facing an Indiana team that has proven it can score. But like the Illini, the Hoosiers can’t stop anyone either.
In IU’s five-game losing streak, every opponent has put up at least 31 points and that includes the likes of Ball State and Navy.
Even though IU has had hardly any road success whatsoever in the last dozen years, go with the Hoosiers to win their first Big Ten game since 2010. IU, 38-24.
Purdue (3-4, 0-3) @ Minnesota (4-3, 0-3)
Saturday
3:30 p.m.
BTN
Minneapolis, Minn. (TCF Bank Stadium 50,805)
Nobody in the conference needs a win as bad as Danny Hope and his Boilermakers.
If Purdue leaves Minneapolis winless in Big Ten action, Hope’s days are numbered in West Lafayette and you have to really wonder if he should be allowed to finish the season.
This is a game that the Boilermakers should win. They’re more talented on both sides of the ball than the Gophers and have more playmakers. The thing that has to worry you from the Purdue perspective is this team’s psyche. After suffering a heartbreaking overtime loss at Ohio State last week, a game that it’s still hard to fathom how Purdue lost some six days later, it will be interesting to see if this team has given up or if it rallies behind Hope, who is known as a players’ coach. Can this Purdue team save what so far has been a very disappointing season?
We knew going into the season, the latter half of Purdue’s schedule was much more manageable than the first. Well, now that those final five games are here, the Boilermakers better start putting wins together.
They’ll have to do against a Minnesota team that does a good job against the pass, primarily because it isn’t overly impressive against the run.
Hope has no excuses this week as the defense he has touted from the outset will face true freshman QB Phillip Nelson.
Purdue needs to play wide open and pull out all the stops in this one after it seemed to play ultra-conservative last week to try and protect its lead, which proved costly. I’ll go with the Boilermakers, but I’m not overly confident picking them. 35-28.
Blowout City
Iowa (4-3, 2-1) @ Northwestern (6-2, 2-2)
Saturday
Noon
ESPN2
Evanston, Ill. (Ryan Field 47,130)
Are you surprised to see this make the blowout list? Perhaps, but Iowa wasn’t competitive against Penn State and I don’t think the Hawkeyes are a very good football team.
They’ve been decimated at running back by injuries and have very little offense to speak of.
Northwestern is much better running the football than Iowa, but the ˜Cats surprisingly are last in the league in passing.
Speaking of throwing it, Iowa quarterback James Vandenberg is one of the lowest-rated QBs in the FBS. He will have to be at his best in Evanston if Iowa is to knock off Northwestern, especially since the ‘Cats really struggle defending the pass (last in the Big Ten, allowing 279.8 yards per game).
With that said, as long as Northwestern isn’t still thinking about the Nebraska game from a week ago, which it let slip away, Pat Fitzgerald’s bunch should be fine in this one.
Northwestern has just too much offense for Iowa to keep up with. Go ˜Cats, 33-13.
(All times ET)
Follow Doug Griffiths on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ISLgriffiths.
