Pacers Season Preview, Part I
By CHRIS GOFF
ISL Correspondent
After a season of stunning success, the Pacers spent money like a super PAC on steroids this summer. Huge contracts landed on the doorsteps of Roy Hibbert and George Hill, and no expense was spared in overhauling the bench. It was Indiana’s most lavish offseason in nearly a decade.
Clearly, rebuilding is over. Larry Bird is gone, and with him all whispers of a three-year plan. It’s time for the Pacers to contend, and the front office, courtesy of owner Herb Simon’s credit card, decided this group of players is capable of doing so.
To avoid a payroll that incurs luxury tax and still win, president Donnie Walsh and general manager Kevin Pritchard have to be right about a lot. In fact, more major financial decisions lie just around the corner.
In July, David West – at that time approaching 33 years old – is scheduled to hit the open market. In two years, Paul George’s rookie deal is set to expire. George might want James Harden money. Also in 2014, Danny Granger is set to be a free agent at the age of 31.
As much as Indy is seen as an up-and-coming team, it’s incredible to think that, because of budgetary constraints, West, George and Granger might be looking at only one or two more seasons together. The Pacers know that 2012-13 starts a clock on proving themselves. Either this group is good enough, or management, a couple of seasons from now, has to go back to the drawing board in 2014. That’s what’s at stake this season. As Yogi Berra said, It gets late early. For the Pacers – at least not to the degree commonly perceived – time is not on their side.
BEST PLAYER
Not much stands in the way of Paul George being a big-time star. Until he reaches that stage of his career, Danny Granger marches on as the go-to guy. With Indy finally turning the corner, it’s nice to see a loyal soldier like Granger rewarded for not throwing a temper tantrum and deciding his own team wasn’t good enough for him. Too often, the Dwight Howard-Chris Paul-Carmelo Anthony tack draws all the attention. Granger is proof that good things happen to good people, and to those who are patient.
Only question: Can Granger’s left knee hold up? That’s the same knee that required surgery his senior year of college to repair a torn lateral meniscus. Granger’s latest problem is with the patellar tendon, which connects the kneecap to the shin bone. The concern is not only the pain itself but also the side effects that might come from dealing with it. In 2009, Granger was bothered by soreness in his right knee and ended up tearing a tendon in his right foot. Granger said then that trying to play through the first injury caused the second. The Pacers hope history doesn’t repeat itself. The Pacers announced Tuesday that Granger would be out indefinitely.
WEAKNESSES
Aside from the lack of a true superstar, the only real shortcoming on this roster might be third-string point guard. Ben Hansbrough is nobody’s idea of a sure thing if an injury requires him to step in and run Indy’s offense for long stretches.
Otherwise, the Pacers field five starters who are all likely to average double figures in points. Only one of their top nine players (D.J. Augustin) is below average defensively. They have a few players on their bench who would start for other teams in the league. Their big men – West and Hibbert – pass the ball well. And in a league short on quality size, they have three centers drafted in the first round.
All told, Indy’s biggest weakness: LeBron James. James is a little like Peyton Manning. As great as he is, he improves a bit each year. Whether it’s working from the post or shooting a more accurate jumper, the James you see today is better than the one you saw two years ago. And the James we see this season might be (gulp) better than the one who torched the Pacers in May.
BIGGEST QUESTION: Can the Pacers really be that healthy again?
Indiana led a charmed life en route to a third-place finish in the East last year. Only George Hill – a bench player for the majority of the regular season – missed significant time, and he still played in 50 of the 66 games. The road this time around will be much tougher, especially with Granger already hurt.
Meanwhile, Indy took advantage of opponents who had good players sidelined. The Pacers won in overtime against a Hornets team that was missing Eric Gordon, Emeka Okafor, Jason Smith and Carl Landry. They escaped the Air Canada Centre with a five-point win over the Raptors, who didn’t have the 20-point scoring of Andrea Bargnani. In Houston, the Pacers needed overtime to edge a Rockets team playing without Kyle Lowry and Kevin Martin. Injuries do affect the standings and, of course, the playoffs, where Indiana beat Dwight Howard-less Orlando in Round 1.
While the Pacers generally are young and have an excellent training staff led by Josh Corbeil, it’s fair to expect more bumps and bruises. Injuries happen to every team, so it’s not realistic to expect another season of a healthy 10-man rotation.
EXPECTATION
Assuming Paul George continues to emerge at both ends of the floor, Indiana looks like an overwhelming favorite to seize the Central Division crown for the first time since the NBA realigned its divisions in 2004. If Miami is by itself in the top tier of the Eastern Conference, then teams like the Pacers and Celtics are right below the Heat. Indiana has enough to win on most nights and get to the magical 50-win plateau.
As far as winning it all, that seems like a major stretch. The Pacers bring enough defensive intensity to stay in later-round playoff games, but they lack the dominant scorer who can go out and win them. That should keep Indiana from being a serious contender for the championship.
Follow Chris Goff on Twitter: www.twitter.com/chrisgoff_ISL.
