Griffiths’ Big Ten picks: Big one for Nebraska in East Lansing
By DOUG GRIFFITHS
ISL Correspondent
Just when you think you have the Big Ten football somewhat figured out, last week happens.
Michigan appeared ready to solidify itself not only as the favorite to win the Legends Division, but take a stranglehold in doing so. Nebraska, though, had other ideas and now the Cornhuskers control their own destiny to earning a bid to the Big Ten Championship Game in Indy.
Nebraska now holds the tiebreaker over Michigan as both teams sit at 3-1 in conference play, and both don’t have easy paths to the title tilt. Neither plays a team that currently has a losing record the rest of the way and don’t be surprised if it comes down to the final weekend a couple days after Thanksgiving when Nebraska travels to Iowa and the Wolverines head to Columbus.
Of course, Northwestern is just one game back of the top spot. The problem for the ˜Cats is they lost to Nebraska and have a trip to Michigan waiting after they enjoy their bye week Saturday.
All six teams in the Legends have a shot at being bowl eligible. Michigan, Michigan State and Minnesota are just one victory away from win No. 6 on the year, while Iowa needs to split its final two. Nebraska and Northwestern are already bowl eligible.
The same can’t be said in the Leaders. Of course Ohio State and Penn State, who are first and second, respectively, can’t participate in the post-season so Wisconsin is the only team from that division currently bowl eligible.
Speaking of the Badgers, they appeared to have the Leaders Division all sewn up. That was until Michigan State came to Madison and beat the Badgers in overtime last week. Wisconsin will enjoy being idle this week and will have a huge game next week at Indiana, where the Badgers could all but clinch a bid to Indy with a win.
Believe it or not, the Hoosiers could represent the Leaders Division in Indianapolis if they win their remaining four games. That seems very far-fetched, especially considering this is a team that two weeks ago lost to Navy and earlier this season fell to Ball State.
After facing Iowa at home this week, IU plays the Badgers in its home finale before traveling to Penn State and Purdue. Needless to say, the Cream and Crimson have an uphill climb just to get to being bowl eligible as they have to win three of their last four games.
“We have a long way to go in building our team,” IU coach Kevin Wilson said. “We have had very short success, very small success.
“We finally had the scoreboard go our way Saturday (in the win at Illinois), but we still have a lot of things to clean up. We’re not nearly as good as we’re capable of being. We preach constant, daily improvement, and the kids are doing a good job of it. But we’ve got a lot of work to do here.”
As for the Boilermakers, they’re one of the most disappointing teams not only in the Big Ten, but also in the nation. Barring a strong finish, Coach Danny Hope will be fired at season’s end. He still contends his team can have a special season, but is 7-5 or 6-6 special for a team that was dubbed as a contender in the Leaders Division?
Then there’s Illinois, who is simply pitiful, having lost five straight games with a daunting task of playing undefeated Ohio State Saturday in Columbus.
Illini Nation is already calling for Coach Tim Beckman’s head and he hasn’t even finished his first year in Champaign.
Needless to say, it should be a very interesting last month of the regular season in the Big Ten.
Following is your guide to what Big Ten football is worth watching tomorrow as IndySportsLegends.com provides you with an idea of what league games to watch and the ones that aren’t DVR worthy.
(Last week was unkind to me as I suffered my worst week of the season, going a forgettable 2-4. That sad showing dropped my season record to 58-16 on the year, a winning percentage of 78.4 percent.)
Game-Of-The-Week
#21 Nebraska (6-2, 3-1) @ Michigan State (5-4, 2-3)
Saturday
3:30 p.m.
ABC/ESPN2
East Lansing, Mich. (Spartan Stadium 75,005)
This will be a tough game for Nebraska and might be its toughest test the rest of the way.
The Cornhuskers know if they win their last four games, they’ll be playing in Indianapolis.
It’s strength against strength in this one. Nebraska’s high-powered offense, which leads the Big Ten in scoring and total offense, goes against a very good Michigan State defense.
The Huskers have the better offense, but the Spartans are coming off a huge victory at Wisconsin last week and could ride that momentum to another upset win.
It’s hard to believe MSU could lose 4 of its first 6 home games this season, but I like Taylor Martinez to find a way to escape East Lansing with a W. Go Big Red, 16-10.
Must-See TV
Michigan (5-3, 3-1) @ Minnesota (5-3, 1-3)
Saturday
Noon
BTN
Minneapolis, Minn. (TCF Bank Stadium 50,805)
Can the Golden Gophers win the Little Brown Jug for the first time since 2005? No, not with Denard Robinson expected to play.
Minnesota rookie QB Philip Nelson looked good against Purdue last week, but will have his hands full against a much better Wolverine defense.
Michigan has beaten Minnesota 71 times total, marking its most wins over any opponent. Furthermore, the Wolverines have won 20 of the last 21 meetings between these two schools in the series and have not lost in the state of Minnesota since 1977.
It’s a safe bet Michigan will be focused and look impressive in Minneapolis after its sub-par performance (albeit short-handed) at Nebraska a week ago. Michigan won’t beat Minnesota as badly as it did last year (58-0), but it still will win in convincing fashion. Go Blue, 30-10.
May Be Worth A Look-see
Iowa (4-4, 2-2) @ Indiana (3-5, 1-3)
Saturday
3:30 p.m.
BTN
Bloomington, Ind. (Memorial Stadium 52,929)
There is a lot of giddiness right now around the IU program. I guess that’s what a win over lowly Illinois will do.
Believe it or not, Hoosier fans are talking about the possibility of winning out and playing in the Big Ten Championship Game. Seems far-fetched doesn’t it? Yes, especially when you consider this is a Hoosier program that hasn’t won two straight conference games since 2007 and is 4-36 in Big Ten play over the past five seasons.
To have a chance of beating the Hoosiers, Iowa’s offense must be more consistent than it has been this season and must play a ball-control type game.
The last thing the Hawkeyes want to do is give Wilson’s offense a lot of chances. If they do, IU, who leads the league in passing yards (286.6 per game) and has 16 TD passes compared to Iowa’s 3), will win going away. Oh Indiana, 31-28.
Penn State (5-3, 3-1) @ Purdue (3-5, 0-4)
Saturday
3:30 p.m.
ESPNU
West Lafayette, Ind. (Ross-Ade Stadium 62,500)
Why would this game be worth a look?
Well, for a couple reasons. It will be interesting to see how Penn State responds after losing to Ohio State, its first Big Ten loss of the season and first loss, period, since early September.
Also, if there was ever a must-win for a coach, this is it for Danny Hope. His team hasn’t been competitive three of the last four weeks, including two sad performances at home against Wisconsin and Michigan. Hope may not survive this season anyway, but if his Boilermakers have another dud at home that could really seal his fate. In addition to Purdue underachieving this season, Hope may be shown the door because attendance is plummeting in West Lafayette. The expected attendance for the Penn State game is 37,500, which would be the smallest crowd since 1997. There won’t be anywhere close to that figure of actual bodies in the stands.
The Boilermakers’ hope for the pulling off the upset lies on the shoulders of quarterback Robert Marve, who is playing with a torn ACL. Marve should’ve been starting the entire season, but hasn’t.
Can Purdue halt its four-game losing streak? Don’t count on it. Last week against Minnesota, the Boilermakers resembled a team that has given up.
Purdue will face a Nittany Lion team that hasn’t given up more than 19 points in the last five meetings. Penn State, 31-14.
Blowout City
Illinois (2-6, 0-4) @ No. 6 Ohio State (9-0, 5-0)
Saturday
3:30 p.m.
ESPN
Columbus, Ohio (Ohio Stadium 102,329)
This is the Buckeyes’ final tune-up before enjoying a bye week and facing Wisconsin and Michigan to close out the 2012 season.
OSU will coast in this one as it faces a team that can’t score – 17 points is the most it has scored during Big Ten play – and can’t stop anyone – every conference opponent has tallied at least 31 points.
Illinois lost by two touchdowns to IU last week at home. Imagine how bad the Illini will fall in Columbus. All O-H-I-O, 49-0.
(All times ET)
