Griffiths’ Big Ten picks: Title game picture as we know it
By DOUG GRIFFITHS
ISL Assistant Editor
As we enter the home stretch of the regular season in the Big Ten, a few things could be decided on Saturday.
A win at Wisconsin would give Ohio State the outright Leaders Division championship. The Buckeyes are guaranteed no worse than a share of the title after Penn State lost at Nebraska last weekend.
For Penn State or Wisconsin to earn a piece of the division championship, they need the Buckeyes to lose their final two games and the Nittany Lions and Badgers, who play each other in Happy Valley to close out the regular season, need to win out.
It’s a two-team race between Nebraska and Michigan in the Legends Division race with the Cornhuskers holding the upper hand since they beat the Wolverines in their head-to-head meeting earlier this season.
Nebraska and Michigan enter the second-to-last week of the regular season with identical 5-1 Big Ten marks. The Cornhuskers have the easier road to Indianapolis, the site of the second annual Big Ten Championship Game Dec. 1, as they host Minnesota before traveling to Iowa in a week. On the other hand, the Wolverines, host the Hawkeyes Saturday before heading to Columbus for their annual clash with the Buckeyes in a week.
Of course, Wisconsin locked up its second straight trip to the Big Ten title game with its convincing 62-14 win at Indiana last Saturday.
The Badgers know they’ll have to beat Nebraska or Michigan on the first Saturday in December to earn a second consecutive trip to Pasadena.
Wisconsin, Nebraska and Michigan are three of the Big Ten’s five teams that are currently bowl eligible. Minnesota and Northwestern are the others that know they won’t be home for the holidays.
An additional four more teams still have a shot at getting bowl eligible by winning at least six games. Michigan State will punch its bowl ticket with its next victory, while Indiana, Iowa and Purdue all must win their final two games to finish 6-6.
The Spartans have to like their post-season chances. They know if they beat either Northwestern Saturday in East Lansing or Minnesota in a week in Minneapolis, they’ll be playing a 13th game.
Of the three 4-6 teams fighting for their post-season lives, Purdue probably has the best shot of getting to six wins. The Boilermakers play Saturday at Illinois before hosting Indiana in the Old Oaken Bucket battle. IU could see its bowl hopes go down the drain this week with a loss at Penn State. Iowa could also be eliminated from bowl consideration if it loses in Ann Arbor.
Speaking of bowls, the Big Ten has eight bowl tie-ins and won’t be filling them all because Ohio State and Penn State are ineligible for the post-season due to NCAA sanctions.
The winner of the Big Ten Championship Game will head to the Rose Bowl with the loser more than likely bound for Orlando and the Capital One Bowl.
The other Big Ten tie-ins in order of selection are as follows: Outback (Tampa), Gator (Jacksonville), Buffalo Wild Wings (Tempe), Meineke Car Care (Houston), TicketCity (Dallas) and Little Caesars Pizza (Detroit).
So whether it’s to punch your ticket to Indy, become bowl eligible or to improve your bowl standing, there’s plenty to play for in the final two weeks of the regular season.
With that said, IndySportsLegends.com gives you the following guide to what conference games are worth watching tomorrow and the ones that aren’t DVR worthy.
(I had another solid week going 4-1, only missing the Purdue @ Iowa game. My season record now stands at 67-17, a wining percentage of 79.8 percent.)
Game-Of-The-Week
– #6 Ohio State (10-0, 6-0) @ Wisconsin 7-3, 4-2)
Saturday
3:30 p.m.
ABC/ESPN2
Madison, Wis. (Camp Randall Stadium (80,321)
This is really interesting matchup. You’ve got two of the better rushing offenses against two of the better rushing defenses.
The problem for Wisconsin is it seems to be a lot more one dimensional than Ohio State because QB Joel Stave is hurt. Fifth-year senior Curt Phillips got his first career start against IU last week, but pretty much all he did was hand the ball off Montee Ball and Co. rushed for a school-record 564 yards against the Hoosiers. Don’t expect the Buckeyes to make things nearly as easy for Phillips and the Badger offense.
If Wisconsin is going to hand Ohio State its first loss of the season, it will have to do so using its passing game a lot more than it had to in Bloomington.
Keep in mind, the Badgers haven’t allowed more than 16 points in a game since the end of September. That number will be put to the test, however, as the Buckeyes will bring in Big Ten Offensive Player-of-the-Year favorite Braxton Miller, who has helped the Scarlet and Gray score an average of 46.2 points per game in their last five outings.
I really like Urban Meyer’s team and think because Stave is on the shelf; the Buckeyes have more to work with offensively.
This should really be a slugfest. Big Ten traditionalists should be in heaven. O-H-I-O 17-14.
Must-See TV
– Northwestern (7-3, 3-3) @ Michigan State (5-5, 2-4)
Saturday
Noon
ESPN2
East Lansing, Mich. (Spartan Stadium 75,005)
It will be interesting to see how the Wildcats recover from their disheartening overtime loss at Michigan a week ago.
Overall, this has been a season of near misses for Northwestern. Yes, the Wildcats will once again head for a bowl game next month yet they have to be playing the What If game.
The Cats have led in the fourth quarter of all of their losses this season only to lose to Penn State, Nebraska and Michigan.
Now some – wrongfully so I might add – are questioning Pat Fitzgerald’s coaching ability since his team can’t seem to finish strong in big games.
This will be yet another tough game for Northwestern.
Michigan State is fighting for its bowl life and has a defense that can certainly contain the Wildcats’ good rushing offense.
Like Northwestern, MSU has been a team with close call after close call. The Spartans’ four Big Ten losses have been by a total of 10 points.
Go Green in this one and expect another close one, but what else is new for these two? 20-17.
No One Cares
– Purdue (4-6, 1-5) @ Illinois (2-8, 0-6)
Saturday
3:30 p.m.
BTN
Champaign, Ill. (Memorial Stadium 60,670)
This is a game that Purdue has everything to lose and Illinois doesn’t. A loss for the Boilermakers would eliminate them for the post-season and put the final nail in Danny Hope’s coffin as he would surely be terminated sometime in the next 10 days.
Illinois is still in search of its first Big Ten victory and still searching for offense. The Illini are one of the worst offensive teams in America. In fact, they rank 118th in scoring, averaging 16.9 points per game (only Kentucky and Idaho are worse).
Illinois has tons of problems with its offense line so figuring out how it can block the likes of Kawann Short and Bruce Gaston is anyone’s guess.
QB Robert Marve, who should’ve been starting all season for the Boilermakers, has energized the Old Gold and Black somewhat.
As long as Marve is decent in this one, he’ll lead Purdue to its second straight Big Ten win. Hail Purdue! 28-10.
Blowout City
– Indiana (4-6, 2-4) @ Penn State (6-4, 4-2)
Saturday
Noon
BTN
University Park, Pa. (Beaver Stadium 106,572)
If Indiana didn’t have any fight in it at home against Wisconsin with what was at stake, how are Kevin Wilson’s Hoosiers going to put up any kind of a fight in Happy Valley? They aren’t.
IU will get a steady dose of Penn State running back Zach Zwinak, who should have a big day because the Hoosiers will have to respect Matt McGloin and the Nittany Lions’ passing game a lot more than they did the Badgers.
The Nittany Lions can’t be all too happy losing at Nebraska, a game they feel was stolen from them.
On the other hand, you have to wonder where the Hoosiers are psychologically after getting beaten badly by Wisconsin.
If IU thought Wisconsin’s defense was good, wait until they see Penn State’s veteran-laden group. Plain and simple the Hoosiers are in for a long day and will yet again will have to endure yet another football season without a bowl appearance. Penn State will face little resistance from the visitors. Lions in a rout, 42-10.
– Iowa (4-6, 2-4) @ #23 Michigan (7-3, 5-1)
Saturday
Noon
ESPN
Ann Arbor, Mich. (Michigan Stadium 109,901)
A month ago the Hawkeyes looked like they were a lock for the post-season and now they’re a long shot at best after losing four in row.
Iowa’s big problem is on offense. It simply can’t score many points. During the Hawkeyes’ current losing streak, they’ve averaged 19 points per game, and haven’t scored more than 24 points in a game since beating Minnesota 31-13 Sept. 29.
Could Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz’s job be in jeopardy if the Hawks lose to be eliminated from the bowl picture? It’s hard to imagine he would after all he’s done for that program, but Hawkeye fans aren’t happy. They have reason to be unhappy as right now they’re paying Ferentz about a $1 million per victory this season.
Another win over Michigan would certainly silence his critics, and beating the Big Blue is something Ferentz has done with regularity. Iowa has beaten Michigan three straight times.
Don’t look for that trend to continue on the Wolverines’ Senior Day. Whether Denard Robinson will play or not is still in question as he continues to try and come back after suffering nerve damage in his arm. He might appear briefly just to say he played in his final appearance in Michigan Stadium.
It won’t matter though if Robinson plays or not. Devin Gardner has shown he’s more than a capable backup.
Iowa’s defense could make things slightly tough for Michigan, but the Hawkeyes don’t have near the firepower offensively to hang with the Wolverines in the Big House. Hail to the Victors! 38-13.
– Minnesota (6-4, 2-4) @ #16 Nebraska (8-2, 5-1)
Saturday
3:30 p.m.
BTN
Lincoln, Neb. (Memorial Stadium 81,091)
Despite this game feature a pair of bowl-bound teams, this one is going to be ugly.
In Minnesota’s two prior games against the Big Ten’s best – Wisconsin and Michigan – it hasn’t been competitive, losing 38-13 and 35-13.
Now comes the challenge of containing a Nebraska offense that has more playmakers than either the Badgers or Wolverines. Good luck Gophers.
Minnesota would like to force Taylor Martinez to beat it with the pass. The problem is the Gophers don’t do very well against the run, ranking eighth in the conference, surrendering 168 yards per game. It’s a safe bet Minnesota can expect to see a steady dose of Martinez and Ameer Abdullah running the football all afternoon (perhaps Rex Burkhead, too, if he’s well enough to go on Senior Day).
Expect, the Blackshirts to make life real difficult for Gopher freshman QB Philip Nelson.
Jerry Kill’s bunch really doesn’t have anything to lose in this one. They’re already bowl eligible and will want to leave Lincoln without suffering any significant injuries. And who knows, if Nebraska gets turnover happy, maybe the Gophers could make a game of it. Doubt it though. All NU, 47-9.
(All times ET)
