Craig Dragash picks IHSAA finals winners
By CRAIG DRAGASH
ISL Correspondent
First of all, thanks to all who have followed my prognostications throughout this high school football season. I have really enjoyed doing them, and whether you look to my picks for insight as you prepare for the upcoming games, or you are waiting for me to make my next blunder, I appreciate you coming back each week.
I’ve learned a lot this season, but one thing I learned stands out above all the rest: High school football in the Indiananpolis area is easily the highest brand of football in the state. For Indiana’s “all-in” football playoffs, you can literally throw out the records when it comes to the postseason. So much of tournament success is determined not only by talent and good coaching, but also how the regular season scheduling prepares each team for tournament play.
There is no better example of this than Cathedral. The Irish entered the postseason with a 4-5 regular season record, and I fell victim to paying too much attention to their record when making picks for their games. They fell to Louisville Trinity by one touchdown at a time when Trinity was ranked #1 in the nation by several publications. I thought with the success that Roncalli has enjoyed this season that they could knock of the defending 4A champs; boy was I wrong! The Irish have steamrolled their way through the playoffs, and they now have a chance to defend their title against Mishawaka.
So I enter the state finals round with a 12-13 record this postseason (a far cry from the 4-11 mark I had going two weeks ago), and a 32-23 record overall. I think at least three of the five games this weekend will be good matchups, with another one having potential. So here are my final picks of the year:
Class A Final: Lafayette Central Cathlolic vs. Scecina
LCC is the three-time defending state champions, and a traditional power that is a force to be reckoned with. The Knights had a 48 game winning streak snapped early in the year by Culver, a team that finished 7-3 this season and lost to a 5-6 John Glenn team in the first round of sectionals. These events suggest that the Knights are not as strong as they have been in years past, but they still have an impressive resume’ with wins over Heritage Christian and Tipton. Scecina appears to be a team that is peaking at the right time, and they turned in an impressive win over Linton-Stockton in overtime last week in semistate play. LCC is number one in the latest Sagarin ratings, and Scecina is three, with Linton-Stockton in the middle at number two. This figures to be a great game; Scecina uses its momentum to dethrone the Knights.
Scecina 24, Lafayette Central Catholic 23
Class 2A Final: Ft. Wayne Luers vs. Ritter
I’ve talked for most of the season about how impressed I am with Ritter. Since their opening week one point victory over Heritage Christian, Ritter has not been seriously challenged, and that includes by teams like Chatard, Shenandoah, and Evansville Mater Dei; all of which have had impressive seasons. Luers has had some adversity this year, as they lost their head coach mid-season. Their only loss since that incident was to Columbus Hartley, an Ohio powerhouse. Luers will certainly give Ritter everything it can handle, but Ritter finishes the job.
Ritter 42, Luers 24
Class 3A Final: Hamilton Heights vs. Chatard
According to the Sagarin ratings, these are the two teams that are supposed to be here; Chatard is number 1 in those rankings, and Heights is number 2. However, there is a sizable separation between the two, largely due to the schedules they play. Both teams are putting up big numbers on offense, so it likely will come down to which defense can come up with the most stops. The Trojans will be that team.
Chatard 35, Hamilton Heights 24
Class 4A Final: Mishawaka vs. Cathedral
Many think that Cathedral played their state finals game last week vs. Columbus East, and that turned out to be a romp for the Irish. The only way the Irish fall in this one is if they have a handful of top players go down in the first quarter, and that may not even be enough for Mishawaka to compete. The Cavemen are simply outmatched in this one; the Cathedral formula for success in the postseason will be on display for the last time before the Irish make the jump to 5A next season based on the success factor recently brought about by the IHSAA.
Cathedral 42, Mishawaka 7
Class 5A Final: Ft. Wayne Snider vs. Lawrence Central
I have had my concerns with LC based on the number of mistakes they have made when I’ve seen them play, particularly penalties. I was so concerned that I picked Center Grove to beat them last week. The Bears seem to have those problems in check, as they looked very impressive against the Trojans. Both teams enter this matchup undefeated; Snider’s wins include solid recent performances recently against Fishers and Merrilville in tournament play. I believe that LC’s speed, along with their execution and determination will put them on the podium receiving first place medals Saturday evening.
Lawrence Central 31, Ft. Wayne Snider 21
So that concludes my picks for the final Friday Night Lights Prognostications for the season. Thanks again for checking out my picks each week, and a special thanks to Indy Sports Legends Editor Cliff Brunt for allowing me to do something I’ve always wanted to do this season.
Best of luck to all teams at Lucas Oil Stadium this weekend, and Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
