USC all that stands between No. 1 Notre Dame and title game
By DOUG GRIFFITHS
ISL Assistant Editor
Win and you’re in.
That’s Notre Dame’s mindset as it braces for its regular-season finale against rival USC Saturday night.
The 11-0 and No. 1-ranked Irish know if they beat the Trojans they’ll be playing in the BCS National Championship Game Jan. 7 in Miami.
While Notre Dame has far exceeded expectations this season, USC has been college football’s biggest disappointment.
The Trojans were the preseason No. 1 team in the country, but they were knocked out of the national championship race early, won’t even be playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game and will have to settle for a lower-tier bowl game.
USC was 6-1, but lost three of its last four games and heads into its annual clash with the Irish with just a 7-4 overall record, including 5-4 in the Pac-12.
Making matters worse for the Trojans is the fact that they’ll be without All-American quarterback Matt Barkley, who injured his throwing shoulder in last Saturday’s 38-28 loss at UCLA. That loss gave the Bruins the Pac-12 South title and knocked SC out of contention.
Replacing Barkley will be 6-foot-4, 235-pound redshirt freshman Max Wittek. He has thrown just nine passes this year, completing eight for 95 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions.
According to Rivals.com, Wittek was the third-rated high school quarterback in the Class of 2011.
Wittek has only appeared in mop-up duty this season. He is said to have a big-time arm.
We don’t know a lot about Max, said Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly, who recruited Wittek. But he’s on scholarship at USC. When you get a scholarship to USC, you’re one of the best quarterbacks in the country.
He’s a big, strong, physical kid. He’s got a live arm, and will certainly fit into their offensive scheme of things. He’s a perfect fit for what they do.
The offensive line did a good job protecting Barkley and must do the same with Wittek.
SC’s front has allowed 15 sacks this season (tied for top honors in the Pac-12).
Even without Barkley, SC has plenty of star power.
The Trojans have perhaps the best receiving corps in the country with sophomore flanker Marqise Lee, junior split end Robert Woods and freshman flanker Nelson Agholor.
Lee has had an amazing season with 107 catches for 1,605 yards (15.0 yards per reception) and 14 touchdowns. Lee ranks second in the nation, averaging 145.91 yards per game.
What makes Lee such a dangerous receiver in Kelly’s eyes is his incredible acceleration after the catch.
If you look at what he does after the catch, that’s where it gets really scary, said Kelly about Lee.
Their offensive staff does a great of setting up formations to get him one on one matchups.
Woods has grabbed 66 passes for 721 yards and has 10 TDs.
Agholor is another player with big-play potential. He averages nearly 18 yards per reception and has scored two times this season, including a 76-yard score.
Certainly the receiving corps is as good as we will see, Kelly said. It’s the best in the country in our opinion.
Plus, SC isn’t void of talent in the backfield. Senior running back Curtis McNeal is expected to start and will likely get a bulk of the carries as Penn State transfer Silas Redd, SC’s leading rusher (740 yards, 9 TDs) is dinged up. Redd might play, but isn’t expected to be much of a factor.
McNeal is averaging 6.3 yards per carry and has two rushing scores on the year.
How much SC’s offense suffers without Barkley remains to be seen. With Barkley, the Trojans averaged 36.1 points per game and 467.5 yards of offense (both fourth in the Pac-12).
Defensively, this season USC has struggled. It isn’t a good tackling team and isn’t assignment sound.
As a result, the Trojans’ 11 opponents have averaged 392.2 yards per game and 24.8 points (both seventh in the Pac-12).
It is a defense that has gotten to opposing quarterbacks. SC’s 42 sacks rank third in the Pac-12.
The Irish must do a good job on junior defensive end Morgan Breslin, whose 11.5 sacks rank third in the Pac-12 this season. Freshman defensive end Leona Williams has added 7.5 sacks.
Senior safety T.J. McDonald is one to watch. He leads the team in tackles with 89 (sixth in the Pac-12). Sophomore linebacker Hayes Pullard is another one to keep an eye on. His 78 stops are good for 10th in the conference.
Kelly is concerned about the Trojans’ overall athleticism and speed on defense.
Great speed on defense, Kelly said. Long on the defensive line. Pass rushers, guys that can get after the quarterback, and a secondary that will want to get hands on you in the sense that they’re going to play tight coverage. Last year they gave us all kinds of problems.
What is cause for concern from Notre Dame’s perspective is the Trojans’ knack for returning kickoffs for big gains. Thanks to Lee, SC is the top-rated Pac-12 team in kickoff returns, averaging 26.6 yards per runback (eighth nationally). Lee averages 29.3 yards per return and has a 100-yard touchdown this season.
Kelly called Lee a dynamic special teams player.
Obviously when you’ve got Lee back there, you’ve got a guy that can do a lot of things, Kelly said.
Overall, Lee leads the Pac-12 with 2,416 all purpose yards (219.6 per game). That’s the third-best total in the FBS.
The Trojans, however, struggle in the field goal department as they have connected on just 8-of-13 tries this season.
My Take
This was supposed to be a very difficult game for the Irish. It still could be, but you know when things are breaking your way when team’s star quarterbacks get hurt right before you play them.
No Barkley really makes Notre Dame’s life a lot easier.
Wittek was a very highly regarded player coming out of high school and has potential, but he has very little experience at the college level. It’s hard imaging him having a lot of success against an Irish defense that is one of the program’s best ever.
As long as Notre Dame gets pressure on Wittek and it should, the Irish will be fine. However, if Wittek has time to get the ball to his playmakers like Lee and Woods, the Trojans could not only make a game of it, but pull off the upset.
This isn’t a good tackling SC team, which could mean a productive evening for Irish running backs. Plus, the Trojans don’t do a good job of covering the tight end in the passing game. Look for Tyler Eifert to be a focal point of the game plan and to have a big night.
Finally turnovers have really been an Achilles heel for this SC team. If it continues to be careless with the ball as it has been, this one won’t be close.
The Irish have taken care of business all season long and there’s no reason to think they won’t continue their workmanlike approach, especially being so close to earning a bid to the BCS National Championship Game.
Notre Dame gets it done again and will be 12-0 for the first time since 1988. Bring on Bama.
Notre Dame 31, USC 20
(I’m 10-1 this season predicting Irish games with the loss being last week’s Oklahoma game)
ND Nuggets
– The game will kickoff at 8 p.m. and be televised by ABC as Brent Musburger will handle the play-by-play, with Kirk Herbstreit the analysis and Heather Cox on the sideline.
– The Irish are a 5 1/2-point favorite.
– According to The Weather Channel’s website, Saturday will be a very nice day in Los Angeles. The forecast calls for partly cloudy skies with the high temperature being 81 degrees and the low 56 degrees. Winds won’t be a factor coming out of the north, northwest at 3 miles per hour and there’s no chance of rain.
– Notre Dame leads its all-time series against USC 43-35-5, but the Trojans have the upper hand in LA, 21-18-4.
– The Irish have been ranked No. 1 seven times when playing SC and they are 5-2 in those contests.
– Since Sept. 17, 2011, Notre Dame has the fifth-best winning percentage among all FBS teams. The Irish are 19-3 in its last 22 games, trailing only Oregon, Alabama, Northern Illinois and Georgia.
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