Crossroads Classic Game 1 preview: Butler vs. Indiana
By CHRIS GOFF
ISL Correspondent
The marquee game of Saturday’s Close the Gap Crossroads Classic, Indiana versus Butler, will likely swing on who controls the speed of the game.
Indiana plays one of the country’s fastest paces. Conversely, less than 100 teams in Division I average fewer possessions per game than Butler, which prefers to methodically duke it out in halfcourt sets on both ends of the floor.
The Bulldogs faced Indiana at Assembly Hall last season and lost 75-59. A lot is different about this meeting, which takes place on a neutral court. This time Butler is revamped, while the Hoosiers are the center of the college hoops universe. The Bulldogs happily added Rotnei Clarke and Kellen Dunham, in large part to compete offensively against quality competition, and it’s seemed to work – Butler has defeated North Carolina, Marquette and Northwestern.
The Hoosiers, meanwhile, are extremely deep and are the best offensive team in the nation, averaging a ridiculous 1.25 points per possession. Indiana should have a de facto homecourt advantage, despite the game being played at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, because of the size, scope and intensity of the Hoosiers’ fanbase.
Butler has not played a top-ranked team since Feb. 16, 1980, when it lost to No. 1 DePaul. The Bulldogs defeated Purdue in last year’s inaugural Crossroads Classic, and because of annual rotation, draw the Hoosiers at an inopportune time. Indiana is 37-13 all-time against Butler.
Below is a breakdown of the head-to-head matchups and more ahead of tomorrow’s 2 p.m. tip.
Small forward: Victor Oladipo vs. Roosevelt Jones
Jones may not be able to match Oladipo in the scoring department, but both are capable of making life miserable for the players they guard and filling up the box score in a number of categories, including assists, steals and rebounds. If Jones can stop Oladipo from driving to the basket, then any offense Butler gets from Jones will be a bonus.
Power forward: Christian Watford vs. Khyle Marshall
Marshall will have to chase Watford out to the 3-point line, and his shot blocking and rebounding won’t be much of a factor for Butler if he’s around the arc instead of underneath the basket. While Watford can sometimes completely disappear, he isn’t likely to do so in big games. Watford arguably was Indiana’s best player in the NCAA tournament last March and seems to play his best against opponents who threaten Indiana the most. Marshall, himself inconsistent, has played four good games this season and been so-so in the other five.
Center: Cody Zeller vs. Andrew Smith
Zeller, a leading contender for national player of the year honors, is far more accomplished than Smith, a 6-foot-11 senior. Zeller is a true 7-footer and despite being only a sophomore already knows far more about how to take contact and gain advantageous positioning in the post. In the 2011 Hoosier Invitational, Zeller scored 16 points and held Smith to just three points on 1-for-7 shooting. After that game, Butler coach Brad Stevens said Smith needed to embrace getting better. A year later, facing Zeller is the ultimate test of improvement.
Shooting guard: Jordan Hulls vs. Alex Barlow
Hulls has obvious advantages in talent and experience against Barlow, a walk-on who started the past two games and may do so again. If Stevens keeps the lineup intact, he would be wise to use Barlow, a stalwart defender, to check Yogi Ferrell in an attempt to fluster the freshman who gets Indiana into its offense. Hulls’ offensive skills are miles beyond Barlow’s. From this vantage point, Hulls is the best 3-point shooter in the country, with Butler’s Rotnei Clarke a hair behind.
Point guard: Yogi Ferrell vs. Rotnei Clarke
Clarke appears to have a large advantage on Ferrell, making this the only matchup solidly in Butler’s favor. There’s a good chance Stevens and Indiana coach Tom Crean cross match defensively, meaning these two won’t guard each other. Whoever draws the defensive assignment on Clarke will have to chase Butler’s leading scorer through screens to ensure he doesn’t go off for 30. Ferrell is not a bad defender, but Oladipo is Indiana’s stopper. In terms of production, Clarke is the superior player and will outscore Ferrell, but for Butler to win, he needs to annihilate Ferrell.
Benches
Frontcourt subs Hanner Mosquera-Perea and Peter Jurkin debut for Indiana after completing nine-game suspensions. Kameron Woods and Erik Fromm appear to be reasonable counters to those two. Elsewhere, Will Sheehey is as good a sixth man as there is in the sport. Butler hopes to limit his production and receive some of its own from sweet-shooting freshman Kellen Dunham, who began the season as a reserve, moved into the starting lineup for five games and now has returned to the bench. Dunham must play well because Remy Abell and Maurice Creek will at the very least offset whatever Butler gets from Chase Stigall and Jackson Aldridge.
Key Stat for Indiana: Turnovers
The Hoosiers know that having the edge in height and athleticism gives added value to the idea of just simply getting a shot off. But there’s more to it than that. When Butler knocks off a giant, it often does so by forcing more skilled opponents into a barrage of turnovers. In NCAA tournament upsets of Syracuse and Michigan State, the Bulldogs forced turnover totals of 18 and 16, respectively. Take care of the ball, and enough points will safely find their way onto the scoreboard.
Key Stat for Butler: 3-point makes
If they can hit a bunch of 3s, the Bulldogs have a shot at the upset. As a big team, Butler doesn’t space the floor all that well, but Smith needs to step out and make one or two. The only true threats, Clarke and Dunham, might need to combine for a total that approaches a baker’s dozen.
Who wins
The Hoosiers likely have too many weapons, with depth and star power at every position. In fact, it’s a moral victory for the Bulldogs if they only lose by single digits. Aside from the point guard spot, Butler is likely to have razor-thin margins in any individual matchups it wins. The Bulldogs have won five straight at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and three of the last four matchups against Indiana in Indianapolis. That’s nice and all, but it says here Indiana wins by 16 because of Zeller.
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