Four questions on Butler-Saint Louis with Ben Weixlmann
By CHRIS GOFF
ISL Correspondent
Possession of first place in the Atlantic 10 standings is on the line Thursday night when No. 9 Butler visits Saint Louis. The two schools are meeting for the first time as A-10 foes after competing together for nine seasons in the Midwestern Collegiate Conference in the 1980s and early 90s.
To get you ready for the showdown between the 17-3 Bulldogs and 14-5 Billikens, ISL’s Butler beat writer Chris Goff is joined by Ben Weixlmann, who covers Saint Louis for Fox Sports and BillikenReport.com, for a round of Four Questions.
1. How impactful is the outcome of this game to each team’s chance to finish first in the conference standings?
Ben Weixlmann, BillikenReport.com: I think this will obviously be incredibly impactful going forward for Saint Louis. If the Billikens lose, they have virtually no chance at finishing first in the conference. If Butler were to lose, they would simply rejoin the pack at the top of the league and would still be viewed as a title contender. It’s not a “must-win” for SLU at this stage in the game for postseason purposes, but in terms of winning an outright league title, I think it is.
Chris Goff, IndySportsLegends.com: I asked Saint Louis coach Jim Crews on a conference call Monday whether he viewed this game any differently since his team is 3-2 in league play and about to face the leader (4-1) at home. Crews insisted this one carries the same weight as a bout with Fordham, but that’s not true. Butler has a favorable stretch of schedule in February, so not only do the Billikens need to hang another loss on the Bulldogs and avoid one of their own, but they need to secure the edge in a head-to-head tiebreaker. Butler has margin for error, but the benefit of a win is that it would knock Saint Louis pretty far back as a challenger.
2. What will be the most important matchup on the court Thursday?
Weixlmann: It’s not a “sexy” matchup by any means, but I think Roosevelt Jones-Dwayne Evans will be of vital importance. Both players do so much for their respective teams and their games mirror one another quite closely. If Evans is able to keep Jones from getting into the lane, SLU should be able to dictate the tempo of the game. On the other hand, if Evans gets in early foul trouble as he’s been prone to do this year, Jones should continue to have the success he’s had all year getting to the rim and creating for teammates in the halfcourt.
Goff: Saint Louis center Rob Loe doesn’t play a ton of minutes or post flashy numbers, but how he protects the basket – and defensive glass – will be crucial as he goes against fellow 6-foot-11 big Andrew Smith. Butler is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation, grabbing 36.2 percent of its misses. Smith is a big part of that; he rebounds 11.7 percent of Butler misfires when he’s on the floor. Loe’s defensive rebound rate (12.6) is only slightly better than Smith’s offensive rate. Loe must find a way to prevent second opportunities. Smith, Butler’s second-leading scorer, must provide offense.
3. What signs will you look for early in determining which highly rated unit (Butler’s offense or Saint Louis’ defense) has an edge?
Weixlmann: I’ll be looking to see who wins the rebounding game early on. I think it’s quite important for SLU not to let an efficient offense such as Butler get second looks at the basketball. If the Billikens are forcing early missing and hitting the glass hard, it’ll give them the edge as they will look to get out in transition and find points in offense of their own.
Goff: Saint Louis, tied with VCU for the league lead in defense on a points-per-possession basis, leaves the door ajar in one respect: 3-point shooting. The Billikens allow opponents to shoot 36.2 percent from long range; only 58 of 347 Division I teams are worse. I’ll be watching to see whether Butler’s shooters are getting clean looks. Also, the Bulldogs take 36 percent of their attempts from downtown. Can Saint Louis force them inside the arc and reduce that ratio to something like 20 percent? Without 3s, Butler would lack its customary oomph.
4. Which player on each side is the best bet to shine individually in this game?
Weixlmann: For Butler, it has to be Rotnei Clarke. The kid is an absolute competitor and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him thrive in a hostile environment such as Chaifetz Arena. For SLU, I think you’ve got to go with fifth-year senior Kwamain Mitchell. He’s been a bit hit-or-miss this season, but — just like Clarke — he’s been known to bring his play up a couple notches when his team needs it most.
Goff: Clarke so rarely has an off game, and he is coming off his best-ever effort as a floor general. It all starts with No. 15. On the Billikens’ side, Mitchell posted one of the best box score lines you’ll see all season in the Jan. 19 loss to Rhode Island. In other words, Ben and I agree: Look out for the point guards.
