Brunt: Big Ten’s success might not translate at the Big Dance
By CLIFF BRUNT
ISL Editor
I’ve never seen anything like this.
I never imagined a No. 1-ranked team could lose to an unranked foe with a losing record in league play and stay at the top.
Indiana did it. The Hoosiers’ convincing win at Ohio State on Sunday was enough to override the loss to Illinois and keep them at the top of the college basketball world (in the AP poll).
Such is the power of the Big Ten. You can suffer what appears to be a “bad” loss, then not drop in the polls. Of course, “bad” in the Big Ten is an Illinois team that has beaten Butler, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Indiana and Minnesota. This is the strongest I’ve seen the conference in eight years of covering it.
Such also is the state of college basketball. Call it parity or inconsistency — some call those synonyms — but the losses by most of the other top teams during the past week gave the Hoosiers an opportunity to remain No. 1.
The unique situation caused me to consider a few things.
How good is the Big Ten this year? How good is the Big Ten, relative to other top conferences in say, the past five years? And does being a member of the best conference in America at this point mean anything down the road?
I’ll knock these out one at a time.
How good is the Big Ten?
According to the Ratings Percentage Index on Rivals.com, here are the RPI rankings of the teams in the Big Ten, with games through Sunday factored in: Michigan 5, Michigan State 9, Indiana 11, Minnesota 13, Ohio State 23, Illinois 25, Wisconsin 31, Iowa 92, Nebraska 97, Northwestern 102, Purdue 130, Penn State 202.
These numbers tell several things.
1. The No. 1 team in the AP poll is actually No. 3 in its own conference in the RPI rankings.
2. Illinois, sitting eighth in the conference with a 4-7 record in league play, has an RPI of 25. That’s sick.
3. Eleven of the 12 teams are in the top 130. Purdue is a pretty salty team to have the second-lowest RPI in the league, and to the Boilermakers’ credit, they have scraped and clawed their way to a 5-6 conference mark with a largely freshman cast.
4. Day two of the Big Ten tournament will be fun.
Here’s another thing to consider: Illinois is eighth in the Big Ten with a 17-8 overall record and a 25 RPI. Here are the other eighth-place teams in power conferences, with records and RPI: ACC-Clemson 12-11, 151; Big East-St. John’s 15-9, 55; Big 12-Texas 10-13, 159; Pac 12-USC 11-13, 104; SEC-LSU 13-8, 112.
So clearly, facing the eighth-place team in the Big Ten is a bit different than facing the eighth-place team in other leagues.
How good is the Big Ten relative to other top conferences in the past five years?
This week, the Big Ten has three teams in the top eight: Indiana is No. 1, Michigan is No. 4 and Michigan State is No. 8. In addition, Ohio State is No. 13 and Wisconsin is No. 20. I’ll stay with the Top 10 on this one and compare it to Week 15 (this is week 15) in previous years.
There have been other conferences as strong at the top as the Big Ten is this year in recent years. The Big East has done the best near the top of the polls over the past five years, but it should be noted, the conference has 16 teams, thus giving it a better chance of having highly ranked teams.
Last year, the Big 12 had three Top 10 teams in Week 15: No. 3 Missouri, No. 4 Kansas and No. 9 Baylor. In 2011, the Big East had three at this point: No. 5 Pitt, No. 8 Notre Dame and No. 9 Georgetown. In 2010, the Big East had four teams in the Top 10: No. 3 Villanova, No. 5 Syracuse, No. 8 West Virginia and No. 10 Georgetown. In 2009, two conferences were having banner years at this point. The Big East had four Top 10 teams: No. 1 Connecticut, No. 4 Pitt, No. 7 Louisville and No. 10 Marquette. The ACC had three: No. 3 North Carolina, No. 8 ACC and No. 9 Duke.
So, though this is a great year for the Big Ten, there are other conferences over the years that have been as impressive at this point. However, only the Big East in 2009 had the No. 1 team and at least two other Top 10 teams at this time of the year.
What does it all mean come March?
I will use the examples above and look at how far the teams in those strong conferences made it in the NCAA tournament to give at least one statistical analysis of whether high-level conference success at the top in February translates into success in the end. Again, this is just conferences in the past five years that had at least three teams in the Top 10 in week 15 of that year.
2012 Big 12
No. 3 Missouri — lost to Norfolk State in the round of 64.
No. 4 Kansas — lost to Kentucky in the national final.
No. 9 Baylor — lost to Kentucky in the Elite Eight.
Notes: Totally mixed results here, but Missouri proved that playing that tough Big 12 competition all season didn’t help when it mattered most.
2011 Big East
No. 4 Pittsburgh — lost to Butler in round of 32.
No. 8 Notre Dame — lost to Florida State in round of 32.
No. 9 Georgetown — lost to Virginia Commonwealth in round of 64.
Notes: Absolutely horrid performance here that cost the league a lot of credibility.
2010 Big East
No. 3 Villanova – lost to Saint Mary’s in the second round.
No. 5 Syracuse — lost to Butler in the Sweet 16.
No. 8 West Virginia — lost to Duke in the national semifinals.
No. 10 Georgetown — lost to Ohio in the first round.
Notes: This is a perfect reason not to get too fired up about early season success. This was a disaster, and West Virginia, which had to upset Kentucky in the Elite Eight to get to the Final Four, was the saving grace.
2009 Big East
No. 1 Connecticut — lost to Michigan State in national semifinal.
No. 4 Pitt — lost to fellow Big East team Villanova in Elite Eight.
No. 7 Louisville — lost to Michigan State in Elite Eight.
No. 10 Marquette — lost to Missouri in second round.
2009 ACC
3. North Carolina — won the national title.
8. Wake Forest — lost to Cleveland State in the first round.
9. Duke — lost to Villanova in the Sweet 16.
Notes: North Carolina beat Michigan State for the national title that season. Villanova and Connecticut were the other two teams in the Final Four. This is a mixed bag, though it should be noted that the two conferences in question here, the Big East and the ACC, had three of the Final Four teams and the national champion.
Only one of the 17 teams in my sample won a national title and just four reached the Final Four. The other thing of note is that of the 17 teams listed here, seven lost NCAA tournament games to mid majors. Perhaps that is the thing to worry about most as these teams from dominant conferences, and especially the Big Ten, approach the NCAA tournament. For all the big games and the hype throughout the season in the power conferences, history shows that some team out of nowhere with nothing to lose is almost as likely to end your season as the big boys you play each week. Enjoy the ride, Big Ten fans. But hold off on claiming this is the best conference in America until about two months from now.
