Seven issues confronting the Pacers this summer
By CHRIS GOFF
ISL Correspondent
The Pacers are faced with a number of small decisions and a few big ones this summer as they try to accomplish their related goals of keeping together their core and making the NBA Finals for the second time in franchise history. To keep the payroll from reaching a level that triggers an increasingly punitive luxury tax, Indiana must be precise and efficient.
With that in mind, let’s run down the seven primary issues facing the Pacers as they enter the offseason, adding a prediction for each.
1. What to do with Danny Granger?
The $14 million question might be the one most talked about this offseason. The transitional Granger Era may be over. In his eight years with the Pacers, Granger played in four playoff series, made one All-Star appearance and, on average in the five seasons he led the team in scoring, scored 21.6 points and took 5.4 rebounds per game while making 3-pointers at a 39 percent clip.
But with just one year and $14 million remaining on his deal, the Pacers will try to swap him out for more controllable assets this summer. While Granger played in only five games this year and underwent right knee surgery, the Pacers moved Paul George to Granger’s spot at small forward and saw him flourish.
Prediction: Granger is traded, most likely to the Mavericks. The Pacers will absorb Shawn Marion’s expiring contract and get a promising rookie in return. Dallas has the No. 13 pick in the draft, and there is also the possibility a third team will be involved. Once Dallas whiffs on Dwight Howard and Chris Paul, ownership will see Granger as the best available veteran sidekick for Dirk Nowitzki, while still keeping its options open for the future with Granger unsigned past next season.
2. What’s going on with the front office?
Incumbent team president Donnie Walsh and his general manager Kevin Pritchard are a two-headed monster. Although Walsh has final say, Pritchard is a heavily involved lieutenant. Their jobs are not in jeopardy, though there is question over their staying power. Pritchard ran the Trail Blazers for three seasons and would like to get back to calling the shots at some point, whether in Indiana or elsewhere. Walsh is 72 and has had his share of health problems. When Larry Bird stepped down last summer, Walsh ended his retirement to come back. But as early as Walsh’s introductory press conference, he began dropping hints that Bird may just be on a one-year sabbatical.
Fast forward 12 months, and now Bird is sniffing around NBA front offices at the same time Walsh is talking about retirement. Bird recently pulled out of Sacramento’s search for a head of basketball operations. Walsh and Pacers owner Herb Simon have made it clear Bird is welcome to jump back into his old role. In that case, Walsh would leave. Another scenario has neither Walsh nor Bird around on Opening Night as Pritchard gets his second chance.
Prediction: Uncertainty rules, but three powerful voices are too many. You don’t need Walsh, Bird and Pritchard in the same front office. At some point, Bird is going to realize he’s ready to move on from basketball. Who knows if it is now? But I’m not expecting Bird to dive right back in with the Pacers. Walsh seemed to really enjoy the rush of NBA life again. He seems a good bet to come back for one more year. Pritchard’s still stuck in waiting.
3. New bench?
Who would have thought the Pacers would need to retool the bench again after last summer’s spending? Center Ian Mahinmi is the only backup certain to return next season. Tyler Hansbrough is surely a goner. He wants more playing time and the Pacers are ready to move on. D.J. Augustin and the front office should be mutually happy to part ways. Jeff Pendergraph is due a qualifying offer that the team probably will extend, likely with the intent to consider him as a replacement for Hansbrough.
Gerald Green has two seasons left on his contract, and while the Pacers would like to make a deal, he’s a tough sell. He’ll try to get back into the mix in training camp. Sam Young is a free agent. The Pacers’ bench may look a lot different at the start of next season than it did at the end of this year.
Prediction: Hansbrough and Augustin are gone. Pendergraph is the backup power forward. The draft choice will be a rotation 2-guard or floor general, depending if the Pacers think they’ll sign point guard C.J. Watson or Randy Foye for a shooter. J.J. Redick won’t be a Pacer.
4. Gone for Shaw this time?
Brian Shaw really helped make the season this year. He arguably was the MVP of the coaching staff because of his one-on-one work with Paul George. Shaw will probably jump at an offer to be another team’s head coach. He’s not a lock to find a job, but with Memphis, Denver, Brooklyn, Philadelphia and the Clippers all fielding current openings, someone should want him.
Prediction: Shaw says adios.
5. Draft of fresh air?
The Pacers have to decide how to use their two draft choices, at Nos. 23 and 53. In the past two decades, no Pacers selection at 53 or higher has turned up anything useful, so they may sell their second-round pick or not even sign the guy they take. Stashing a player in Europe is never a bad idea. In the late first round, the Pacers will stay put, wanting to find a piece that can help right away.
Prediction: The Pacers fill one of their bench needs. Probably by adding a shooter or scorer at a wing spot.
6. Extending the wings?
Do the Pacers try to sign Paul George and Lance Stephenson, who are 23 and 22, respectively, to long-term contracts? Between the end of the July moratorium on league business and October 31, the Pacers have a window to sign George to an extension of as many as five years in length. That deal wouldn’t take effect until the 2014-15 season, allowing George to play out the final year of his rookie contract at the team-friendly salary of $3.3 million. Beginning July 22, Stephenson can do a deal that tacks on up to three additional seasons to his current contract, although it’s hard to imagine he has the financial incentive to do an extension before free agency. Also, the smart play for the Pacers is to wait and make Stephenson prove he can repeat and build upon his success.
Prediction: The Pacers have no doubts about George’s greatness. He’ll never hit restricted free agency. However, a year from now, we will be talking about Stephenson’s possible departure.
7. How to handle David West?
The team’s top priority is to resign West, the foundation of all the recent winning. A new contract for West must be at least two years in length but no more than four, according to league rules. His highest possible first-year salary is $17.5 million, followed by annual raises of $1,312,500. At most, the Pacers can give West a total of $77.9 million in new salary. They won’t want to go that high. They desperately want to keep West, who wants to stay.
Prediction: West, who turns 33 later this summer, comes back on a deal that ultimately is for three seasons and around $37 million.
