Siegfried: Previewing the AFC in 2013
By PAUL SIEGFRIED
ISL Correspondent
Breaking down the AFC teams heading into the 2013 season:
AFC East
PATRIOTS
New England still the class of this division, not because the Patriots remain a dominant team, but because the rest of the division stinks like egg salad left out at a summer picnic.
With QB Tom Brady and coach Bill Belichick still in place, the Patriots remain viable title contenders. Some key players are gone, including highly-productive receiver Wes Welker, who wasn’t re-signed. The Aaron Hernandez situation and Rob Gronkowski’s ongoing injuries leave the TE position in limbo. New England added Danny Amendola as Welker’s replacement, but it is yet to be seen whether Amendola can fill Welker’s shoes.
The Patriots defense remains solid, especially in the front seven, led by Pro Bowler Vince Wilfork.
New England will pile up wins in the division and easily make the playoffs, but the Pats are no longer the postseason slam dunk they have been over the Brady era.
DOLPHINS
Miami made big changes through free agency, most notably the signing of WR Mike Wallace. The Dolphins also lost a lot, including LT Jake Long and RB Reggie Bush. Ryan Tannehill probably isn’t the long-term solution at quarterback, but was effective at times last season.
DE Cameron Wake leads an underrated defense and rookie DE Dion Jordan has a huge upside.
BILLS
The biggest problem for first-year Buffalo coach Doug Marrone is finding a quarterback. Veteran free agent Kevin Kolb’s career may be over with another concussion. First-round draft pick EJ Manuel is battling a knee injury. Journeyman Matt Leinert was just signed off the street then released, leaving undrafted rookie free agent Jeff Tuel as the team’s starting quarterback.
The Bills still have a solid running tandem in RBs CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson, but Buffalo just doesn’t have enough playmakers on defense.
JETS
The Jets are just a mess. Beyond a quarterback situation that shows no signs of getting resolved, New York lost whatever talent they had in free agency. The Jets have some good, young talent on defense, but it won’t be enough. Rex Ryan might be the first coach fired this year and the Jets will be in the running for the No. 1 draft pick next year.
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH
1.New England (11-5), 2.Miami (8-8), 3.Bills (4-12), 4.Jets (3-13)
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AFC North
RAVENS
Despite the retirement of LB Ray Lewis following the Ravens Super Bowl win, Baltimore has more than enough weapons returning to make another run at the title game. There are some new faces, and they might take some time to come together. But QB Joe Flacco has a new contract in hand and RB Ray Rice also returns.
Along with Lewis, the Ravens also lost S Ed Reed and others from their top-tier defense, Baltimore has added enough with pass rusher Elvis Dumervil, DL Chris Canty and DL Marcus Spears that they might be even better this time around.
BENGALS
The Bengals seem always on the verge of breaking into the elite ranks. They have QB Andy Dalton and WR A.J. Green and now rookie TE Tyler Eifert out of Notre Dame. Cincinnati hopes it has have found a runner in rookie Giovani Bernard.
The evolving defense, built around DT Geno Atkins, could be one of the better units in the league, and they might be the best in pressuring the quarterback.
If the perennially-underachieving Bengals can avoid the self-inflicted mistakes of the past, they can certainly challenge for division honors and more.
STEELERS
The slide in Pittsburgh continues, and the Steelers might be staring at a compete overhaul after this year. Coach Mike Tomlin hopes to get another good year from QB Ben Roethlisberger, but the once-solid offensive line that protected him is long gone. The Steelers got another blow when rookie RB Le’Veon Bell was lost with a foot injury. Also gone via free agency is top big play receiver Mike Wallace.
The defense lost James Harrison and Casey Hampton and lacks playmakers. S Troy Polamalu returns, but the one-time Pro Bowler is always a health risk.
BROWNS
Cleveland will once again try and crawl out of the division basement, this time under new coach Rob Chudzinski. QB Brandon Weeden again will run the offense, handing off to bruising RB Trent Richardson, who needs to stay healthy. Weeden will try and get the ball to WR Josh Gordon and emerging TE Jordan Cameron. LT Joe Thomas is a perennial All-Pro.
The defense took a hit when top pick Barkevious Mingo was sidelined with a bruised lung. Joe Haden has become one of the top CBs in the league.
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH
1.Baltimore (10-6), 2.Cincinnati (10-6), 3.Pittsburgh (7-9), 4.Cleveland (5-11).
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AFC South
TEXANS
Everyone is still waiting for those predictions of the Houston Texans reaching the Super Bowl to come to fruition. The Texans have been a trendy pick the last couple of years, but the team has faltered in postseason play. For sure, all the weapons are still there, including QB Matt Schaub, WR Andre Johnson and RB Arian Foster. Houston even has the reigning defensive player of the year in J.J. Watt and added future Hall of Fame safety Ed Reed.
But Reed has yet to see the field after having hip surgery, and the Texans offensive line is also struggling with injuries.
Then there will be the high expectations once again, and the question of whether Houston can finally break through will be tested again in the postseason.
COLTS
The Colts were the feel-good story of 2012 with rookie quarterback Andrew Luck taking over for the legend, Peyton Manning. Then there was the inspiring cancer fight of coach Chuck Pagano and his replacement, Bruce Arians, who pieced together the remnants of the great Indianapolis teams and made them over into an 11-win team and playoff qualifier as everything fell into place.
Pagano is back on the sidelines, Luck is in his second season, and an improving defense seems to have made the changeover to the 3-4, led by LB Robert Mathis.
The Colts are certainly a better team this season, but there is a possibility that might not translate into another 11 wins. The schedule is tougher and the team won’t catch anyone sleeping this year. All that said, with this team, nothing would be surprising.
TITANS
During their four-year playoff drought, the Titans have yet to get all their puzzle pieces to fit. Jeff Fisher’s successful run sputtered to an end two years ago, and Mike Munchak’s leadership hasn’t been able to get things turned around. Tennessee has had highly-productive RB Chris Johnson, but the QB situation has kept the Titans near the bottom of the the NFL’s offensive ratings.
Jake Locker gets another shot at the QB spot, and Johnson seems healthy at least to start the season. WR Kenny Britt can be a game-breaker, but he has not shown he can be reliable on or off the field.
The Titans defense is being held together by off-season acquisitions, and the team concentrated on defense in the draft. Tennessee will win a game or two they aren’t supposed to, but overall a .500 record is about all they can expect.
JAGUARS
Maurice Jones-Drew continues to toil away for Jacksonville, knowing defenses can put their full attention on his powerful, yet diminutive frame. The Jaguars have decided to go another year with Blaine Gabbert at QB, which is probably enough to pencil in Jacksonville at the bottom of the division again.
There is some light coming from northern Florida. The Jags drafted Luke Joeckel to lock down the left tackle position, and drafted playmakers Ace Sanders and Denard Robinson to go along with returning WRs Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon to give Jacksonville some potential on offense.
Even if the Jaguars can score points, there’s no guarantee they won’t give up more on defense, where only MLB Paul Poslusnzy stands out.
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH
1.Houston (11-5), 2.Indianapolis (10-6), 3.Tennessee (6-10), 4.Jacksonville (4-12)
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AFC West
BRONCOS
It’s taken everyone a year to get used to seeing Peyton Manning wearing the Denver orange, but now that we’ve gotten over that, it’s easy to see that Denver is the team to beat in the AFC this season. Even in a down year in the conference, the watch will be on early as to how soon the Broncos wrap up the precious home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
If not for the superhero effort of Adrian Peterson, Manning would have won another league MVP last year. He quickly answered that he had returned to full health and still had life remaining heading into his 15th NFL season.
The team went out and grabbed WR Wes Welker to go along with Demaryious Thomas and Eric Decker to give Manning plenty of targets. The Broncos are still looking for that bell-cow running back, but they have depth at the position with Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Hillman, Lance Ball and rookie Montee Ball. They all operate behind what is arguably the best offensive line in the league.
The defense took a hit when All-Pro LB Von Miller was hit with a six-game suspension. Overall, though, the defense is solid, and is usually well-rested with Manning guiding time-consuming drives on offense.
CHIEFS
In Kansas City, Andy Reid has arrived as the new coach, Alex Smith as the new QB, and Eric Fisher as the No. 1 draft choice at left tackle. Are they enough to turn the Chiefs around? Probably not this year. But pieces appear to be falling into place, and don’t be surprised if Kansas City plays a spoiler role late in the season.
The Chiefs still have RB Jamaal Charles and WRs Dwayne Bowe and Dexter McCluster as playmakers.
On defense, there are a number of high draft choices that have yet to reach their predicted level of play, including Tyson Jackson and Dontari Poe, who need to come around to match solid linebackers and secondary.
CHARGERS
The Chargers finally cut ties with coach Norv Turner, but the window may have shut on San Diego building a team around QB Philip Rivers.
New coach Mike McCoy already has troubles. The offensive line, despite the drafting of mammoth tackle D.J. Fluker, is still in shambles and won’t be able to protect Rivers. The wide receiver corps has been wracked by injury, leaving oft-injured RB Ryan Mathews to shoulder the offensive load.
The Chargers defense was mediocre last year and will be again, with the only real changes coming with the signing of pass rusher Dwight Freeney and the drafting of LB Manti T’eo.
RAIDERS
The game of the year for the Raiders may come Dec. 8 when they face the equally-pathetic New York Jets in what will probably be a battle for the No. 1 draft choice.
Oakland pretty much gutted its roster, keeping RB Darren McFadden and dumping almost everyone else. Oh yeah, there’s still K Sebastian Janikowski, who is the Raiders best scoring weapon.
There will be an almost entirely new defense with at least seven starters gone from a year ago. They will feature first-round draft choice CB D.J. Hayden and future Hall of Fame safety Charles Woodson, who was signed as a free agent.
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH
1.Denver (13-3), 2.Kansas City (7-9), 3.San Diego (6-10), 4.Oakland (2-14).
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POSTSEASON
Division Winners
Denver, Houston, Baltimore, New England
Wild Cards
Cincinnati, Indianapolis
First round
Baltimore over Indianapolis
Cincinnati over Houston
Second round
Denver over Cincinnati
New England over Baltimore
Championship
Denver over New England
