Siegfried: Previewing the NFC in 2013
By PAUL SIEGFRIED
ISL Correspondent
Breaking down the NFC teams heading into the 2013 season:
NFC EAST
GIANTS
In a division with no clear-cut frontrunner, the Giants are as good a pick as any. Besides, they have been at their best when they have struggled just to get into the postseason, with a pair of Super Bowl titles in the era of QB Eli Manning and coach Tom Coughlin. The Giants head into the season with relatively little turmoil, unlike the team with which they share their stadium, the Jets. That’s the same stadium that will host the Super Bowl this year, and the Giants would love to be one of the teams there.
The Giants have Eli at QB, a stable running game with David Wilson, although backup Andre Brown is lost for a few weeks with a broken leg. Manning can throw to Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks or rookie Rueben Randle.
On defense, Osi Umenyiora is gone and Jason Pierre-Paul is coming off back surgery, so pressuring the passer is a question mark on a shaky unit. Some new faces have been added, so the success of the team could come down to how well those new parts come together.
REDSKINS
No story was as big in the offseason as the condition of Redskins QB Robert Griffin III’s knee and if he would be ready for the season opener. With all the drama and daily updates, it looks as if Griffin will be ready to go for his second NFL season.
The Washington roster is remarkably stable, with 21 of 22 starters back from last year’s team, including another surprising rookie in RB Alfred Morris. Receivers Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan are both back after injuries slowed them a year ago.
The return of key defensive starters is a priority. DE Adam Carriker’s recovery from a quadriceps tear was slower than expected, but OLB Brian Orakpo seems fully healed. LB Ryan Kerrigan is poised for a breakout season.
COWBOYS
The Cowboys always seem to be in a state of turmoil. This offseason, owner Jerry Jones shook up the coaching staff, replacing defensive coaches Rob Ryan and bringing in Monte Kiffin and Rod Marinelli to convert the team back to a 4-3. Head coach Jason Garrett remains on an ever-simmering seat.
Jones doubled-down and gave QB Tony Romo a contract extension despite a 17-21 record as a starter in the last three years. The Cowboys are hoping oft-injured RB DeMarco Murray can stay healthy, with only rookie Joseph Randle in reserve.
Romo does have receiving weapons with WRs Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, and the ageless Jason Witten at TE.
The switch to a 4-3 will cause some changes, and perhaps some struggles. Top pass rushers DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer will go from outside linebacker to putting their hands on the ground as defensive ends.
EAGLES
Chip Kelly’s fast-paced, high-scoring offenses put the University of Oregon among college football’s elite. But Kelly hasn’t coached in the NFL, and all eyes will be on how he makes the transition in Philadelphia. He has the QB in Michael Vick, a deep and versatile group of running backs led by LeSean McCoy, and a stable of WRs, minus Jeremy Maclin, who was lost for the year with a knee injury. The Eagles offensive line was bolstered by top draft pick OT Lane Johnson.
The defense gets a complete rebuild. The Eagles lined up new personnel through free agency in the offseason, but there aren’t playmakers. Newcomer Connor Barwin , signed away from Houston, will probably have the biggest impact as a pass rusher.
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH
1.New York (10-6), 2.Washington (9-7), 3.Dallas (8-8), 4.Philadelphia (5-11).
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NFC NORTH
PACKERS
Anyone waiting for some kind of decline from the Packers will have to wait a little longer. Green Bay might have been passed by the likes of San Francisco and Seattle as the team to beat in the NFC, but the Packers are still favorites in the division and contenders to reach the Super Bowl.
QB Aaron Rodgers is in the fold for at least another five years with a new contract in hand and the Packers hope to have solved their running game problems by drafting Alabama’s Eddie Lacy. There are certainly plenty of receiving targets with Randall Cobb, James Jones, Jordy Nelson and TE Jermichael Finley. The question remains whether the shaky offensive line can keep Rodgers off his back.
The Green Bay defense is solid in the front seven with DT B.J. Raji and LB Clay Matthews leading the way. The secondary loses team leader Charles Woodson, but CB Casey Hayward and SS Morgan Burnett should solidify the shakiest part of the defense.
BEARS
There should be no more excuses for Jay Cutler this season. The Bears have given the sometimes-pouty quarterback all he could need — a No. 1 receiver in Brandon Marshall. help on the offensive line through free agency and the draft, and a an offensive-minded head coach in Marc Trestman, who takes over for Lovie Smith. He’s also got a safety valve in multi-threat RB Matt Forte.
Chicago’s defense should be as stout as ever, even with Brian Urlacher missing at MLB after the team didn’t re-sign the legend. OLB Lance Briggs inherits the leadership role, and if DE Julius Peppers can be even close to his normal level, and CB Charles Tillman continues to force turnovers, the Bears will again be a top defense.
This may be the last ride for this group of Bears. Of the 53 players on the roster, 27 are in the last year of their contracts.
VIKINGS
Just handing the ball off to RB Adrian Peterson should be enough to keep Minnesota in games, if the all-everything back can come close to his 2,097 rushing yards from a year ago. But the Vikings were aggressive in the draft, getting WR Cordarellle Patterson, along with two defensive starters. They signed free agent WR Greg Jennings so QB Christian Ponder has a few more weapons.
There are questions on defense, especially up front, where an aging unit with Jared Allen and Kevin Williams will try and muster one more solid season.
LIONS
When will Detroit harness all the raw talent on this team and make a playoff run? Probably not this year, and maybe never. With QB Matthew Stafford, WR Calvin Johnson and RB Reggie Bush on offense, and DT Ndamukong Suh, DT Nick Fairley and S Louis Delmas on defense, the Lions shouldn’t be a bottom feeder, but they most likely will be at the bottom of the division again.
Detroit has battled through injuries and undisciplined play under coach Jim Schwartz, who may not last the season if the Lions tank early.
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH
1.Green Bay (11-5), 2.Chicago (9-7), 3.Minnesota (8-8), 4.Detroit (6-10).
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NFC SOUTH
FALCONS
There is just one hurdle left for the Atlanta Falcons, and if they don’t get to the Super Bowl again this year, it can only be considered another failure. QB Matt Ryan has reached his prime time throwing to the likes of WRs Julio Jones and Roddy White and gets one more season of TE Tony Gonzalez. The Falcons added RB Stephen Jackson in free agency to carry the running load.
The defense has undergone a makeover. Pass rusher Osi Umenyiora comes over as a free agent and the draft brought a pair of top CBs in Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford. LB Sean Weatherspoon is a rising star, but the Falcons will still new a couple others step up and be playmakers if the team is going to battle the conference elite teams.
SAINTS
The Saints have put Bounty-gate behind them, and coach Sean Payton is back. But will he be able to return New Orleans to its pre-suspension level?
Of course, having QB Drew Brees running the offense is a good start, with his many wideout and tight end targets. The offensive line lost LT Jermon Bushrod, and the Saints still don’t have a consistent running game, which could limit the offense overall.
The defense is switching to a 3-4 front, and New Orleans will need to find consistent pass rushers. Will Smith and Cameron Jordan will try and fill that role. The Saints added SS Kenny Vaccaro in the draft and CB Kennan Lewis in free agency to solidify the secondary.
BUCCANEERS
The emergence of RB Doug Martin in a big rookie season took some of the heat off QB Josh Freeman, who seems to have been barely hanging on to his job, despite the best statistical season ever for a Buccaneer QB. If Martin repeats his productivity and Freeman keeps improving, Tampa Bay should be able to put up points.
The defense has plenty of potential, but injuries and consistency have kept the unit from being as effective as it needs to be. In Adrian Clayborn, Da’Quan Bowers and Gerald McCoy, the Bucs have some big-time talent on the line. CB Darrelle Revis was brought in to improve the secondary, but the one-time All-Pro has yet to be healthy for Tampa Bay.
PANTHERS
Which team will show up in Carolina this season? The team that started last year 2-8 or the one that finished 5-1?
QB Cam Newton is one of the game’s most dynamic playmakers, but he needs to put the whole package together. He can still throw to ageless WR Steve Smith and TE Greg Olsen. The RB duo of DeAngelo WIlliams and Jonathan Stewart is only just adequate.
The front seven of the defense is productive with DEs Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson, and the Panthers drafted DT Star Lotulelei be a run stuffer inside. LB Luke Kechly is becoming one of the best in the NFL, leading the league in tackles a year ago. But there are questions in the secondary.
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH
1.Atlanta (12-4), 2.New Orleans (10-6), 3.Tampa Bay (7-9), 4.Carolina (6-10)
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NFC West
49ERS
The midseason switch of QBs to Colin Kaepernick sparked the 49ers’ run to the Super Bowl, and while San Francisco came up short in that game, it left the Niners the odds-on favorite to get back this season. Kaepernick must prove he wasn’t a one-hit wonder, and to help him out, San Francisco went out and traded for WR Anquan Boldin. Boldin’s presence became even more important with Michael Crabtree out until November.
RB Frank Gore stayed healthy and Vernon Davis is an elite TE and will play a bigger role with Crabtree out. The whole offense works behind one of the league’s top offensive line.
San Francisco’s defense is, flat-out, the best in the NFL. With Justin Smith and Aldon Smith on the front line, and the linebacking corps led by all-everything Patrick Willis, the 49ers control the line of scrimmage. The Niners bolstered their secondary by signing CB Nnamdi Asomugha for veteran experience and drafting Eric Reid, arguably the best safety in the draft.
SEAHAWKS
The Seahawks have been a trendy pick this offseason to be the NFC representative in the Super Bowl. There’s a lot that has to happen before that time comes, especially when Seattle plays in perhaps the toughest division in the NFL.
Seattle’s rise was tied last season to the rise of rookie QB Russell Wilson, who came out of the fourth round to guide the league’s top offense over the second half of the year. The Seahawks traded for WR Percy Harvin, but Harvin injured his hip and is out three months. Wilson still has targets in WRs Sidney Rice and Golden Tate, and there is always-reliable RB Marshawn Lynch to flex into Beast Mode.
The strength of the Seattle defense is in the secondary with top-flight safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor to pair with corner Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. They even added a veteran presence in signing fee agent Antoine Winfield.
The Seahawks tried to add to their pass rush with the signing of free agent DEs Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett. Returning rusher Bruce Irvin will miss the first four weeks with a suspension.
RAMS
The league is still waiting for the second coming of the greatest show on turf in St. Louis. They’ve had trigger man Sam Bradford, but the other weapons just haven’t been there. There have been quite a few changes around QB Bradford, with WR Danny Amendola lost in free agency, but game breaker Tavon Austin added in the draft. WR Stedman Bailey also came in the draft, and the tight end position was filled in free agency with the signing of Jared Cook. They also added the top free agent lineman available in signing LT Jake Long.
The running back position is in flux after Stephen Jackson bolted to Atlanta in free agency. The Rams will likely run a platoon at the position until one player rises above the others.
The Rams defense doesn’t have a lot of experience, but loads of potential. There are three first-round picks on the front line with Chris Long, Michael Brockers and Robert Quinn on a deep and underrated unit. St Louis bolstered it linebacking corps with first-round draft pick Alec Ogletree.
CARDINALS
You have to wonder how long WR Larry Fitzgerald can keep a positive attitude after the revolving door of mediocre QBs that have passed through the Cardinals locker room. Arizona will try again with Carson Palmer, who just might be the solution to pair with the All-Pro wideout.
But even that duo won’t be enough to lift the Cardinals out of the cellar in the division. Bruce Arians comes to Arizona after earning NFL Coach of the Year honors in a fill-in role with the Colts last season. Arians is an offensive guru, but he doesn’t have the weapons he had in Indy. The running back situation is a mess and the offensive line is subpar.
The defense above average, but spent too much time on the field, and a number of players bolted for better teams. Only CB Patrick Peterson stands out in that unit.
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH
1.San Francisco (13-3), 2.Seattle (12-4), 3.St. Louis (8-8), 4.Arizona (6-10).
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POSTSEASON
Division Winners
New York Giants, Green Bay, Atlanta, San Francisco
Wild Cards
Seattle, New Orleans
First Round
Seattle over New York
Green Bay over New Orleans
Second round
San Francisco over Seattle
Atlanta over Green Bay
Championship
San Francisco over Atlanta
