Pacers Preview: Five big questions for the blue and gold
By CHRIS GOFF
ISL Assistant Editor
It’s almost time for the Indiana Pacers’ 38th season in the NBA, so push those jerseys to the front of the closet, mark your calendars and let’s go. The Pacers come in riding serious momentum from a deep playoff run. Danny Granger’s expected recovery will add another level of intrigue to what should be a fascinating season. The Pacers are shooting for their second conference title and first championship. There is going to be a lot of defense and even more Paul George. Owner Herb Simon isn’t getting any younger; all he wants now is to win a world title.
Here are five questions about the year ahead:
1. How close to top form will Danny Granger get?
The Pacers were hopeful they could get a full season from Granger this year. That’s because a starting five of George, Granger, David West, Roy Hibbert and George Hill doesn’t take a backseat to anyone, including the Clippers and Heat. Granger’s left knee is not ready and a calf strain suffered last week has further put the beginning of his season in doubt. Granger believes the mental part of basketball is far more important than the physical. That’s his main concern coming back from a year in which he played just five games. The Pacers may not be able to keep Granger past next season, so he’ll want to make the most of his remaining time. But the team won’t depend on Granger as much because they have so many other options. Granger calls it a “relief” not to carry the scoring burden he once did. He says he doesn’t want to, and will gladly defer to younger teammates. Obviously, returning from knee surgery for any player carries the risk that he won’t be nearly as effective. No one is sure if Granger will be fully healthy.
2. Can they beat Miami?
As West made clear in June, there’s no greater question left for the Pacers than this one. As Larry Bird has built the Pacers from an also-ran into a powerhouse, he has been building toward this season. Indiana has all the pieces in place – a star in George, really good big men and loads of supporting skill players. With the possible exception of West, every key player is in his prime. The Pacers fell short in Game 7 against the Heat last year and have had a summer to dwell on their failure. In the offseason, Indiana lassoed Luis Scola, C.J. Watson and Chris Copeland to stack the deck. As a result, two straight years of losing to the Heat in the playoffs may come to an end.
3. How dominant is the defense?
Very. George’s phenomenal individual defense is the catalyst for one of the league’s fiercest defensive outfits. At times it was nearly impossible to get a basket on Indiana in 2012-13. The Pacers led the pack in overall field goal defense and were great in transition. One of the best things they did was deny the 3-point shot. Only 20.2 percent of Indiana’s shots against were 3-point tries, which is how the Pacers led the league in opponent true shooting percentage. In a sign of the Pacers’ ability to play straight man-to-man, Indiana opponents assisted on only 55.6 percent of their baskets, the third-lowest rate in the league. The Pacers also ended possessions by snagging 74.6 percent of missed shots. None of this was a fluke. Indiana just had a roster littered with defensive talent. Most of it remains, and so the defensive prowess should continue. “We’re a tough basketball team, a big basketball team,” George said. “That’s smashmouth basketball.” The Pacers have few holes; only two of their 10 best players are below-average on D. Hibbert, of course, is the anchor on the back line, and he might win Defensive Player of the Year. His length and awareness make him a dominant force.
4. What about those turnovers – and that offense?
Last season the Pacers amassed the league’s second-highest turnover ratio and finished below the league average in offensive efficiency, which means the impact of associate head coach Nate McMillan can’t be understated. McMillan has a history of coaching up offenses, and usually the performance rises significantly in the first year. In 2001-02, he took Seattle from a bottom-half turnover rate into the top 10, while adding 3.2 points per 100 possessions to the Sonics’ offense. When McMillan accepted Portland’s head coaching position in 2005, he inherited a brutal team with a shockingly high turnover rate – second-highest in the game – and serious scoring woes. In Year 1, he cut a turnover per 100 possessions off the ledger, and by Year 3, Portland had the sixth-lowest turnover ratio and an offense ranked in the top half of the NBA. Over McMillan’s last three full seasons as a head coach, Portland finished second, seventh and 11th in offensive efficiency, and eighth, second and fifth in turnover ratio. Clearly, his mission now as an assistant with the Pacers is to help get the best out of their offensive weapons, and he should do well. Last year, some things didn’t look right, but McMillan will give Indiana ways of avoiding turnovers.
5. How will Indiana do in the regular season relative to Miami, Brooklyn and Chicago?
Several Pacers say earning home-court advantage throughout the playoffs is a chief initiative. Beating out the Heat, Nets and Bulls in the final standings will be tough, but it is possible.
Durability is right up there as the biggest strength of this team. For the past three seasons, even with Granger’s lost year, Indiana has been among the two or three healthiest teams in basketball. Four starters sat out the irrelevant finale, but up to that point the five starters and top reserve Tyler Hansbrough had missed only 22 games between them. One of those was a league suspension of Hibbert. Having a bunch of quality players who never get hurt is half the battle. Trainer Josh Corbeil deserves credit for the good run of health. Miami, Brooklyn and especially Chicago have key players with histories of injuries.
Additionally, Indiana should improve on last year’s 3-point performance, when they were 15th in frequency but 22nd in accuracy. If both rankings rise then the Pacers become a much more potent offensive team and could finish as high as first in the East.
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