Butler Preview: Bulldogs enter changed world
By CHRIS GOFF
ISL Assistant Editor
The Bulldogs are no stranger to coaching turnover, nor to young faces on the bench. But through Barry Collier’s 11 seasons as coach, through the switches to Thad Matta and Todd Lickliter and Brad Stevens, Butler was nearly always the better team against that night’s Horizon League opponent.
Collier’s performance as athletic director these past seven years has been a case study in the art of stability. Since 1990, Butler has been one of the country’s most successful programs, and Collier has remained committed to doing things the way they have always been done. But Stevens’ departure to the NBA, combined with the Bulldogs’ first season in the Big East, has the program transitioning to a new chapter.
DAWGS AT A GLANCE
Coach: Brandon Miller
Last Year: 27-9Key Additions: G Elijah Brown, G Rene Castro, C Nolan Berry, F Andrew Chrabascz
Key Losses: G Rotnei Clarke, C Andrew Smith, F Roosevelt Jones
Projected Starters
PG Alex Barlow
SG Kellen Dunham
SF Kameron Woods
PF Khyle Marshall
C Erik FrommKey Subs
PG Rene Castro
SG Devontae Morgan
SF Elijah Brown
C Nolan Berry
Butler’s history of smart management gives every indication the basketball team will adjust and thrive. With so much change, including the loss of the team’s best player, Roosevelt Jones, to a medical redshirt, the program might need a bit of time in the short term to re-center itself.
GO-TO GUY
Kellen Dunham, G – Dunham pretty much met expectations during his initial college campaign, securing a spot on the Atlantic 10 all-rookie team with an effective arsenal of shots from outside and a surprising ability to earn free throws. Dunham won’t sneak up on anybody this season, but he has the chance to get significantly better.
Offensively, no one on the team can match his skills; it’s just a question of getting more shots for him. This is a key year for Dunham. The Bulldogs have lost enough surrounding talent that their NCAA tournament hopes depend on his putting it all together. Dunham must show a willingness to take the ball to the basket consistently if he is going to be the primary scorer on a team aiming to play deep in March. Dunham will be a fantastic shooter, but the development of his other skills – and whether he has a variety of shots and moves – will determine whether he makes a great first option. The Bulldogs are counting on Dunham to be their main man this year and will draw up a ton of plays for him to score. That alone should make him a good bet to average 15 points a game.
WEAK SPOTS
Offense – The Bulldogs were a pretty good offensive team last year. They ranked in the top third of the nation with a 45.0 field-goal percentage and were in the upper half in 3-point and free-throw shooting. However, Butler was not great, and spring commencement ceremonies graduated what were arguably their two best scoring options. That is cause for concern.
Center – Who’s going to play in the middle for the Bulldogs? Whether it’s senior Erik Fromm or untested kid Nolan Berry, the position doesn’t figure to be a strength. Andrew Smith manned the position last year, and his potential replacements won’t remind anyone of him. Fromm doesn’t necessarily have the athleticism or height to deal with all the stud big men in the Big East, and as a college starter he is not a potent offensive threat. He was mostly a catch-and-shoot perimeter player last season who relied on teammates to generate shots for him. Butler is counting on Fromm to round out his game this year and make their center slot respectable at both ends of the floor.
BIGGEST QUESTION: Can Brandon Miller coach up the youth, particularly Kameron Woods?
This team has some talent. The question is whether it’s ready to win this year. Kameron Woods looked like the real deal when he got more minutes late in the season, but he still has a lot to learn about playing small forward and may have been better off staying inside full-time. Mature big Nolan Berry, super-quick Rene Castro and sweet-shooting Elijah Brown are promising youngsters who could make a difference for Butler this season and in the future. Brandon Miller’s success as coach will depend largely on how he develops these players’ skills.
Butler needs Woods to step up and become a third scoring weapon behind Kellen Dunham and Khyle Marshall; he is the most realistic candidate on the roster to do it, which is why he’s so important to their chances this season. The wiry Woods has great talent. He’s huge for a wing at 6-foot-9, has a passable mid-range jumper, makes foul shots, can take people off the dribble and has fantastic quickness. He’s not a guy who can post up much, but he can get putbacks around the basket.
The Bulldogs stayed in-house on the coaching front with the hiring of Miller, who has huge shoes to fill. Right away, we’ll see if Miller has the talent to pull together this young, diverse squad and keep them in the hunt for a tournament berth.
EXPECTATION: A step back
The Bulldogs will still bring the same defensive intensity, and nobody will hustle more; Miller will make sure of that. However, switching leagues means the bar is raised very high for this team, and there are a lot of holes. The point guard situation is shaky, interior size is a question mark, and the bench looks almost entirely unproven.
Fast Facts
Butler’s 901 defensive rebounds last year were the most in the Atlantic 10.
Only three teams in the A-10 blocked fewer shots than Butler last year.
One fears that their weaknesses will be exploited by the more talented teams at the top of the conference. The Bulldogs’ season probably will look much different than last year’s. The road will be tougher in the brutal Big East, and Butler will have a tough time getting back into the NCAA tournament this season. Just winning 16-17 games could be a struggle. Overall, it looks like this year will be a rare step backward for Butler. The Bulldogs haven’t failed to win 20 games since 2005, but this may be the year the string ends.
See Also: ‘Dawgs scouting reports
Follow Chris Goff on Twitter: chrisgoff_ISL.
