Griffiths: Big Ten Picks – Week #12
By DOUG GRIFFITHS
ISL Assistant Editor
And down the stretch they come.
For all practical purposes, the race in the Leaders Division is over, as Ohio State will be in next month’s Big Ten Championship Game.
The Legends Division is another story.
Michigan State looks to be in great shape, but if Nebraska knocks off the Spartans tomorrow in Lincoln, the Huskers will be in the driver’s seat.
Minnesota will be cheering hard for a Nebraska win because that would get them within one game of Michigan State and remember, the Golden Gophers still have to play the Spartans.
Michigan State, Minnesota and Nebraska are all going bowling, as are four other Big Ten teams.
A few others – Indiana, Northwestern and Illinois – have backed themselves into a corner as far as getting to six wins. They have little or no room for error the rest of the way in the regular season.
My performance last week was anything but postseason worthy. I was flat out horrendous, going 7-8, including 4-1 in the Big Ten.
As a result of my pitiful showing, my season record fell to 123-42 (74.5 percent).
Following IndySportsLegends helps you decide which conference contests you’ll want to keep an eye on and which ones aren’t DVR worthy on Saturday.
We also give you some games around the country you’ll want to closely follow.
Big Ten Game-Of-The-Week
• #14 Michigan State (8-1, 5-0) @ Nebraska (7-2, 4-1)
Saturday
3:30 p.m.
ABC/ESPN2
Lincoln, Neb. (Memorial Stadium 87,000)
This is the game of the season in the Big Ten. The winner will be in excellent shape to represent the Legends Division next month in the Big Ten Championship Game. Both the Spartans and Cornhuskers have played in the event before and both would like nothing better than to start the month of December with a trip to Indianapolis. This one pretty much boils down to one matchup – Nebraska’s running game vs. Michigan State against the run. The Spartans, who boast the nation’s No. 1 defense, allow a mere 43.4 yards rushing. Meanwhile, the Huskers, minus quarterback Taylor Martinez, are hanging their hat even more these days on running back Ameer Abdullah. Nebraska’s defense has been coming on as of late, thanks in part to Randy Gregory becoming more and more of a force. The Huskers will need Gregory and Co. to likely score if they’re going to pull off the upset. The Big Red’s problem is it is facing a Michigan State defense that simply has no weaknesses and just doesn’t give offenses a whole lot to attack. If you truly believe defense wins championships, than it’s impossible not to go with the Spartans, who have never beaten Nebraska and haven’t allowed a touchdown in their last three games, because of their fabulous D. Go Green, 20-10.
May Be Worth A Look-see
• Indiana (4-5, 2-3) @ #17 Wisconsin (7-2, 4-1)
Saturday
Noon
ESPN2
Madison, Wis. (Camp Randall Stadium 80,321)
IU needs to win one of its next two games to achieve its goal of being bowl eligible. The problem for the Hoosiers is those two aforementioned games are against the two best teams in the Leaders Division and a pair of nationally ranked teams in Wisconsin and Ohio State, and both are on the road. The Hoosiers have shown they can score against anyone on their schedule, even the nation’s No. 1 defense in Michigan State. The problem is, and has been for years in Bloomington — stopping the opposition. IU ranks 10th in the Big Ten in stopping the run, allowing 217.4 yards per game. Oh yes, and Wisconsin runs it pretty darn well – second in the league, averaging 280.6 yards per outing. It’s a pretty safe bet to say a steady diet of Melvin Gordon and James White (who needs 49 yards to join Gordon as a 1,000-yard rusher this season) will equate to a lopsided win for the Badgers over the Hoosiers. Keep in mind, in IU’s last four trips to Madison, the Hoosiers have allowed Wisconsin to score an average of 54 points. Badgers post their fifth straight double-digit victory, 42-17.
• Michigan (6-3, 2-3) @ Northwestern (4-5, 0-5)
Saturday
3:30 p.m.
BTN
Evanston, Ill. (Ryan Field 47,130)
In August, this game had all the makings of one with Big Ten championship implications. But neither team has lived up to its preseason hype. This is, though, an intriguing matchup. Northwestern is much better than its record. The ‘Cats just simply haven’t been able to finish games this season (see the ‘Hail Mary’ at Nebraska). Michigan, on the other hand, seems to have had the mindset that its season ended with its home victory over Notre Dame in September. Since then the Wolverines have struggled holding onto the football and have really had a disappointing season. This game is more important to Northwestern simply because it must find a way to win two out of its final three regular-season games to keep its consecutive bowl streak alive. The ‘Cats are getting healthier, while the Wolverines seem to have a lot of issues and just aren’t playing inspired football. I like Northwestern, 28-24.
Blowout City
#3 Ohio State (9-0 overall, 5-0 in the Big Ten) @ Illinois (3-6, 0-5)
Saturday
Noon
ESPN
Champaign, Ill. (Memorial Stadium 60,670)
Illinois’ defense allows nearly 35 points a game and will really be put to the test this week facing one of the nation’s best offenses, which averages 48.2 points per game. Conversely, the Buckeye defense is tough, too, permitting 17 points a game. Translation: The Illini lose their six straight game, are eliminated from any chance of becoming bowl eligible and Coach Tim Beckman might be in the final couple weeks leading the Illini program. All Buckeyes, 49-14.
Purdue (1-8, 0-5) @ Penn State (5-4, 2-3)
Saturday
Noon
BTN
University Park, Pa. (Beaver Stadium 106,572)
This game is interesting only for the fact that it features a pair of true freshmen starting quarterbacks who were roommates at the prestigious Elite 11 camp last year. Purdue’s Danny Etling hasn’t had near the season that Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg had, but to be fair to Etling he doesn’t have a receiver like Allen Robinson to throw to. Hackenberg could have his best day as a collegiate QB as he’ll face a terrible Purdue team. We haven’t seen any signs of life from the Boilermakers since September so expect another lopsided loss for the Black and Gold. Penn State 30-10.
Country Classics?
# 10 Oklahoma State (8-1, 5-1) @ #24 Texas (7-2, 6-0) (3:30 p.m. FOX): Wow, have the Longhorns turned things around or what? They’ve won six in a row. Now, they could win the Big 12, but they’ll have to get by a Cowboy team that averages more than 50 points a game. Go with OSU in this one, 35-28.
#5 Stanford (8-1, 6-1) @ USC (7-3, 4-2) (8 p.m. ABC): If the Cardinal play as physical as they did against Oregon, this will be a blowout. Sure SC has won three straight, but not over any team near the caliber of Stanford. Cardinal won’t slip up on the road this time like they did at Utah. Stanford, 34-14
Texas Tech (7-3, 4-3) @ #4 Baylor (8-0, 5-0) (7 p.m. FOX): The Red Raiders have lost three in a row and it’s hard to see how they reverse that trend against a Baylor team that just lights up the scoreboard week in and week out. The Bears have scored 59 or more points a staggering six times this season. Baylor wins again and does so in convincing fashion, 51-17.
Georgia (6-3, 4-2) @ #9 Auburn (9-1, 5-1) (3:30 p.m. CBS): Could this be a trap game for the Tigers? This is their last test before what could be a gigantic Iron Bowl showdown with Bama. The Bulldogs have won two straight, but it’s tough seeing them winning this one on the road. Auburn prevails, but it won’t be easy, 28-24.
Houston (7-2, 4-1) @ #13 Louisville (8-1, 4-1) (7 p.m. ESPNU): The Cougars lost a tough one last week at Central Florida, putting up a very good fight. Can they repeat that performance, but this time pull off the upset? If they do, they’ll eliminate the Cards’ American Athletic Conference title wishes. Don’t count on it, though, the Ville’s defense gives up the fewest points in the country (10.6). Cards roll, 31-9.
Bonus Picks:
Miami (Fla.) 28, Duke 27
Arizona State 35, Oregon State 21
South Carolina 28, Florida 6
Kansas State 34, TCU 24
Pitt 28, North Carolina 14
(All times ET)
