Pacers vs. Hawks: Round 1 preview
TYLER SMITH
ISL Correspondent
In a rematch of last season’s first round, it’s the Pacers and Hawks. Top-seeded Indiana led the Eastern Conference for most of the season, while Atlanta has the only losing record among the 16-team playoff field. Before Saturday’s opener, let’s take a look inside the matchup:
Keys to the Series:
Pacers-
HOME DOMINANCE: The Pacers only lost one home game all season to an East playoff team. That team was the Atlanta Hawks. Don’t count on lightning to strike twice, however. The Pacers finished the season with a 35-6 home record. Despite some nice road wins late in the season, the Hawks finished the year 14-27 away from home. For the Hawks to have a chance in this series, they will need to win an early game at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Winning the first two at home after finishing the season on a high note might just give the Pacers the confidence they lost in the final month of the season.
Hawks-
3-POINT SHOOTING: Atlanta makes an average of 9.4 3s per game, good enough for second in the NBA. Part of that comes from the volume of 3-point shot attempts, as they are only 13th in the NBA in 3-point percentage. Their best “shot” will come by making a high percentage of their 3-point attempts, and taking Pacers center Roy Hibbert out of the game as they did the last time these two teams met. The Pacers only allow 6.5 3s per game. If their stingy defense is clicking, the Hawks will have a harder time coming through with how they want to play. George Hill also struggles at times with point guards like Jeff Teague. That will be a matchup to keep an eye on in this series.
Will the Latest Trends Matter?
The Pacers finished the final two months of the season with a record of 12-13. The Hawks finished the season by winning seven of their final 10 games, including wins over Miami, Indiana and Brooklyn. Are these trends a better indicator of how this series could shape up compared to overall record? I’m going to suggest they aren’t. The Hawks were fighting for a playoff spot while putting together their best stretch of games all season. That doesn’t always translate to the bright lights of a playoff series against a heavily favored team like the Pacers. Despite the Pacers’ rough stretch of games, they still finished 18 games ahead of Atlanta for a reason. The Hawks will come into the series with confidence, and they do present a few matchup problems for Indiana. Overall, the talent gap between these two teams will still make the Pacers heavy favorites.
What to Watch For:
MAN IN MIDDLE: Atlanta has historically been a challenging matchup for Hibbert. This season, Hibbert is only averaging five points and 3.8 rebounds per game against the Hawks, while shooting an abysmal 28 percent from the field. The Pacers don’t need Hibbert to dominate the Hawks to win the series. But they DO need Hibbert to get his confidence back for future playoff rounds. If he struggles against Atlanta, it won’t help the Pacers moving forward.
ROAD WOES: How will the Pacers play on the road? The last 35 NBA champions had a winning record on the road in the regular season. The Pacers finished just above that mark at 21-20. They haven’t had a big road win in months. Assuming the Pacers win the first two at home, it will be interesting to see if they will have a killer instinct on the road, or if the Hawks will make it a series.
Prediction: Pacers in five.
I could see the Hawks winning a second game to make this a six-game series, but I don’t see them pushing it to seven. Even if Atlanta makes it close, it won’t necessarily mean the Pacers are in trouble for future rounds. I’ve been saying this for a month now: The first round will give the Pacers their best opportunity to prepare for the rest of the playoffs. This will be their chance to find their confidence again, prove they can play on the road and erase all memory of their late season struggles.
David West said it best: “Now the real season begins.”
Follow Tyler Smith on Twitter: www.twitter.com/sports_TYs_20.
