FNF: Purdue Roller Coaster Season Continues or is it Over Before it’s Over?
By Keith Carrell (@BoilerColts)
ISL Purdue Columnist
As a reminder, Purdue FNF (Fan NonFiction) is a column that I’ll be writing intermittently throughout the year, covering both football and basketball, to provide you with some commentary from a Purdue fan. While I am a Purdue fan, I do try to remain unbiased and at times will throw accolades or criticism as I see fit as these opinions are my own. It’s okay if you disagree and I welcome friendly conversation whether you agree or disagree. These opinions are related to the sport and games; in no way are a reflection of how I view a person’s character – in fact, one of the proudest aspects I’ve had of Purdue sports is their high standard of character for coaches, players, and staff (with very rare exceptions over the course of my lifetime). That said, I will try to be as respectful as I can in my musings and I hope you enjoy this content, exclusively on ISL.
Well it’s been a bit of a season hasn’t it? I’ve been wondering for a few weeks now whether or not this Purdue season has been sponsored by Cedar Fair Entertainment – you know, the group that’s known for their roller coasters. Purdue has had some of the highest of highs this year, but also some really low lows. To the chagrin of many (read: all) Purdue fans the lows have outlived the highs too often and I’m not sure this particular roller coaster is one that anyone is going to ask to stay on for a second ride.
It came out earlier this week that Purdue had the top strength of schedule of any school in division one basketball, which is respectable that head coach Matt Painter and Purdue athletics is willing to challenge themselves and their players as much as possible, to build a team a strong as possible, but that only works if the team still wins and as we sit today, the team has netted as many losses as wins with only three regular season games remaining. That has resulted in the team also sitting at only 54 in strength of record. So is the team mathematically eliminated from the NCAA Tournament field yet?
Well, in a typical year, that answer would be an emphatic yes, but like this has been an atypical season for Purdue it’s been a very strange year for the entire world of college basketball. This is a season where four teams in the top ten of the AP poll have five or more losses, where six of the top 25 have nine or more losses. This is a season where the Big Ten has the utmost parody, consistently considered the toughest conference in the nation top to bottom (as visualized by six teams being ranked and nine schools firmly in the tournament field with three others in the conversation), but also a season in which none of those schools may receive a top-two seed line. This is a season where traditional powerhouses have been beaten at home by the likes of Evansville (Kentucky), Stephen F. Austin (Duke) and other headscratchers like Purdue losing big at Nebraska and Indiana losing at home to Arkansas after a ferocious come from behind performance. This is a season where “Cinderella” and longshot teams like Dayton, Gonzaga, and San Diego State (some might even consider Baylor in that mix) are in the top five nationally. This is a season of crazy fun college basketball for the casual observer, but you’re not a casual observer and neither am I and that’s why this hasn’t been a crazy fun season.
So, to get back to the question; No, Purdue is not mathematically eliminated yet, but they’re on death’s doorstep and the video doorbell can see them edging ever closer. For the Boilers to have a legitimate shot at getting into the field one of two things has to happen. Option one: Purdue wins their final three games at home against Indiana and Rutgers and at Iowa – a tall, but not impossible feat – and then needs to win at least one if not two or three games in the Big Ten Tournament. Option two: Win the Big Ten Tournament – this is a nearly impossible feat as Purdue would have to string together at least four, if not five, straight wins against teams from the toughest conference in America. While I know most us are sitting on pessimist row right now, I honestly believe if Purdue wins the final three and then one game in the Big Ten Tournament with the schedule they’ve faced, the conference they’re in, and the season Division one has seen this year that they’ll make the field, likely as a last four in team. That path would net them a season record of 18-15 (11-11 in conference play) with wins over four top 20 teams, including one on the road. It’s unlikely, especially after Purdue has completely collapsed the past couple of weeks, having lost four straight after their win in Bloomington, but it’s not inconceivable. But the realist in me says, prepare for that NIT berth.
So what gives, how did Purdue land in this situation? Increasingly folks have been pointing at the departure of offensive mastermind assistant coach Greg Gary, who departed to become the head coach at Mercer (currently 16-14), but I’m not in that camp. I’m of the opinion that this comes down to players and leadership. Greg Gary was an amazing coach, but his departure is not the reason that Purdue missed a plethora of layups against Michigan or continually allowing opponents to shoot open threes or drive the lane or .
What has been lacking is consistent output from players that Purdue had to count on after losing the scoring output of Carsen Edwards and Ryan Cline. The Boilers needed players like Jahaad Proctor, Sasha Stefanovic, Aaron Wheeler, and Matt Haarms to step into those shoes and carry the offense forward. While each has at times during the season, none of them has been able to do so with any sort of regularity. Proctor began the season with a bang by netting double figures in ten of his first eleven games, but then had a skid of nine straight where he missed that mark, two of which he went scoreless in as he adjusted to Big Ten play. Stefanovic has had some big nights with four games with at least 15 points (each of which he hit at least five threes), but each of those came in the comfort of Mackey Arena and he’s also had 15 games where he scored in single digits and one where he didn’t score at all. Haarms was scoring well to begin the season too, but fell off after his 26-point outpouring against Minnesota; he’s scored five or fewer points in over half of the games since. Wheeler has been probably the biggest disappointment, though, as he was expected to have a big season after how he finished the prior year’s campaign, but he’s had a virtually-season long slump featuring nine scoreless outings and only four games in double figures, none of which was more than eleven points as he’s averaged 26% from the field and a paltry 23% from distance. Purdue is in the odd realm where there is no go-to scorer, with only Trevion Williams averaging more than ten points per game (11.4).
What has been lacking is leadership and consistent effort to replace the gargantuan hole that Grady Eifert left when his heart stepped off the floor. There are no real stats I can think of to consistently illustrate my point, but too many times the effort and hustle (you know, that thing that Gene Keady and Painter coached teams are known for) has been lacking or seemingly transparent entirely. Too often players diving for loose balls and fighting through screens are too often seen wearing uniforms of opposing teams. There have been some stellar effort plays too with Stefanovic taking a number of charges, Evan Boudreaux fighting for everything from a rebound to a loose ball and for his life when he’s getting trucked by a driving opponent, and Nojel Eastern rekindling his defensive wherewithal, but too often the effort and hustle is lacking when the ball isn’t going through the hoop and that’s why Purdue has been on both sides of big wins and big losses. When things are going well, this team can quite literally hang with or beat any team in the nation, but when the ball isn’t going through the hoop, the defense falls by the wayside too and this team can lose by 14 at Nebraska, 26 at Illinois, by 17 at home – at FRIGGIN’ HOME – to Illinois, and by 40 over the last four games, including two at home.
But let’s expound on that double digit loss to Illinois in Mackey for a moment. This is a game where an Illini player (Alan Griffin) was ejected for intentionally stepping on Stefanovic’s chest while he lay on the floor. A game in which Purdue led by one at halftime. A game in which a few Illini players appeared to disrespect Purdue as a whole by what seemed as if they intentionally interfered with a Purdue baton twirler performing during a timeout. A game in which Purdue had the opportunity to respond to getting throttled in Champaign just two weeks prior. But none of that mattered and Purdue came out of halftime with a defeatist appearance and entirely lackadaisical approach. That approach, which has become all too familiar, is what leads me to feel this is more of an effort and player leadership issue than anything else.
Someone is going to have to get out some fresh paint and rework the signs in Mackey Arena, because it’s no longer “Time to Play Hard” and it’s no longer true that “Defense Lives Here.” Or a simpler solution… the players to find a way to revitalize both statements that allow this team and future iterations of it to succeed once more.
THE PROGRESS REPORT
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Offense: D
I’m not sure how much more I can deride this uninspiring offensive game. The game plans actually appear to be solid more often than not, but the execution just isn’t there. Whether it be the assembly line of bricks from range or the inability to finish at the rim, it’s been a painful offense to watch more often than not. It was nice to see Painter try to generate some offense in the Michigan game by starting the game pounding the interior through passes and drives, but the players just weren’t able to finish. Eastern has also had a couple of solid performances trying to generate offense – definitely not his strength – when the rest of the team is stagnant and he’s had a surprising amount of success in those scenarios, but it’s generally too little too late for the team to dig themselves fully out of the sink hole they’d dug.
Defense: D
There are some bright spots where Haarms can still block shots and the team has spouts of rebounds, but then there are also times where the defense is an apparition. Some teams play “token pressure” defense to loosely defend the inbounds and dribble up the court, but too often Purdue just plays token defense allowing shooters ample space, backdoor cuts to be open, and slashers to glide freely to the rim. The most glaring stat of this might be the Michigan game in which the Wolverines committed only three turnovers and two of those were in the game’s final seven minutes when Purdue was already in that aforementioned hole.
Coaching: B-
Give Painter some credit, he hasn’t stopped trying different things to get this team to click, but it’s largely been for naught. Painter has tried changing the starting lineup, the second half lineup, the offensive scheme, the defensive scheme, wearing tennis shoes (oh wait, that last one was for cancer awareness, but you get the point). The last few weeks he does seem to have found some consistent effort from Boudreaux, Eastern, and freshman Isaiah Thompson, but the supporting cast continued to be found lacking or inconsistent and so Purdue now sits in this uncomfortable position of being .500 with three games to go.
Fading Star: Haarms
A few weeks ago I might have put Proctor here, but he’s had a bit of a resurgence in relevance of late, but Haarms has become disappointing the point that he’s been a liability on the court at times. In addition to his offensive woes already mentioned, he’s also been less of a rim protector. Opposing coaches have figured out that if their players move the ball effectively to pull Haarms not only away from the basket, but away from his own man in an attempt to make up for the poor perimeter defense, that the baseline backdoor is frequently open. While not all of that is on Haarms, the result is his minutes have decreased as has his impact on the game.
Emerging Star: Tommy Luce?
I’ve got nothing. Nobody has consistently shown me a desire to be the guy night in and night out on either end of the court to earn an emerging star title. Luce has had some fantastic “Getting Loose with Tommy Luce” moments though, so I’ll give him the nod. The highlight of them all was when he invited former fan-favorite Bobby “Buckets” Riddell to get loose with him. I won’t spoil it, watch for yourself here:
FINAL THOUGHTS
While the season has gotten away from Purdue, they still have pieces on the team and coming in from the recruiting ranks to keep the program relevant for years to come. While this is a blip on the radar reminiscent of the Terone and Ronnie Johnson error (did I say error, Freud would be proud… era of course) in the mid-2010s, things can turn around just as quickly when players and/or attitudes change. One thing is for sure, though, the Purdue faithful are as strong as ever having sold out 22 straight home games. Purdue begins the final stretch of the season tonight as they attempt to sweep Indiana (a team no player on this roster has ever lost to and a team that hasn’t won in Mackey since 2013), a loss marks the end of the season for all intents and purposes while a win leaves a glimmer of hope to this oft-hopeless season. Are fans ready to get off or is this roller coaster still in motion?
