Dragash and Brunt: IHSAA football playoff preview
By CRAIG DRAGASH
and CLIFF BRUNT
ISL Staff
There will be an interesting contrast between the two IHSAA Class 6A semistate football contests on Friday.
One will feature two very familiar foes in Warren Central and Center Grove, and the other match two teams that don’t play on a yearly basis in Carmel and Penn.
Carmel and Penn battled for the 5A title in 2011, and Carmel won 54-0 after Penn came into the game undefeated, just like this season.
Much is made from the fact that Carmel went back to the way things used to be when the Greyhounds got sent north for their tournament run, while the rest of their MIC counterparts were forced to do battle with each other in the south. To this point, every MIC team that has been knocked out of the tournament was eliminated by another MIC opponent.
If you go by the Sagarin ratings, which have proven to be a pretty good indicator of predicted outcomes of these games, Carmel is about a 10 point favorite over Penn at home. Penn’s defense has given up an average of 3.7 points per game, but the highest Sagarin rating of any of their opponents to this point is Lake Central, whom Penn defeated in last week’s regional round, at 77.52. Carmel’s is 104.15, compared to Penn’s 97.01.
In addition, Penn’s schedule consists of only two opponents that are in 6A. The rest included three 5A opponents and four 4A schools. If we know anything about the tournament, history has proven that you need to play a tough schedule to compete with the Indiananpolis area teams that are well-prepared by their schedules coming in.
Schedule aside, Penn has dominated on the field.
Penn’s defense is led by inside linebacker Aaron Hancock, who has 62 tackles on the season, including 13 tackles for loss. Offensively, the Kingsmen feature dual-threat quarterback Zach Oakley, who has passed for 1,142 yards and 20 touchdown passes to only two interceptions and rushed for 1,038 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Carmel has had things rolling to this point in the tournament, outscoring its three opponents 113-34. The Greyhounds have become more of a read-option offense with the emergence of junior quarterback Isaac James, who more or less has supplanted senior John Lampe, although Lampe is still used on passing downs on occasion. Junior running back Shakir Paschall has carried a heavy load in recent games and is now Carmel’s leading rusher with 843 yards, to go with James’ 745 yards. Fellow junior Chris Perkins injured his ankle in Carmel’s final game of the regular season with Ben Davis, but he appears to be back at least close to full strength. Perkins has tallied 683 yards on the season.
Warren Central enters its contest with Center Grove on a high note after a come-from-behind win over Pike last week to avenge a 38-28 loss earlier in the season in which the Warriors blew a 28-0 lead. But Center Grove is likely playing the best football of anyone in the state at this point. The Trojans defeated the Warriors 21-10 on the road in the season opener, which was Jayson West’s debut as Warren’s head coach after coming over from Lawrence Central.
West should be commended — he led Lawrence Central to the 5A title last season and has his new team on the brink of doing the same.
West broke into coaching with Center Grove head coach Eric Moore, so the two coaches are very familiar with one another.
“It’s not easy, but it’s part of the deal,” said West. “But here we go again.”
Warren was 4-3 after consecutive losses to Pike and Carmel before finishing the regular season with wins over Lawrence Central and Cincinnati St. Xavier. The Warriors defeated Lawrence Central and North Central in the sectional round before their thrilling win at Pike in the regional.
In that regional contest, quarterback Jeff George led the Warriors on both the game-tying and game-winning drives in the fourth quarter after a shaky start to the game. Look for that to give George some confidence against the Trojans. On the season, George has completed 49 percent of his passes for 1,466 yards, with 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He’ll rely heavily on Tirone Young, who leads the Warriors with 756 yards rushing with five touchdowns. Another back to keep an eye on is Adrian Smith, who is often used in goal line and short yardage situations. He leads the Warriors with six rushing touchdowns.
Warren’s most explosive player is wide receiver Darius Lee. He has 1,041 all-purpose yards and seven touchdowns. Lee hauled in the tying touchdown pass from George last week to help lead the Warriors to victory.
Center Grove has steamrolled through the tournament to this point. The Trojans crushed New Albany in the opening round of sectional play 70-14, shut out Jeffersonville 35-0, then ended Southport’s bid at an undefeated season in a big way, winning 56-14.
The last time Center Grove won a state title, the Trojans had a second-year starter at quarterback in Jordan Luallen. This time around, Luke Calvert has led the powerful Trojan offense that is usually a run-oriented attack by complimenting it with a solid passing game. Calvert has passed for 1,859 yards, with 23 touchdowns and only five interceptions.
Moore likes to mix things up with his offense by using several weapons to run the ball, but junior Max Norris has assumed the role of the go-to back. Norris broke two runs of more than 90 yards for touchdowns against Carmel in week three, and he finished the season averaging a whopping 13.83 yards per carry.
6A Semistate: Penn (12-0) at Carmel (9-3)
Dragash: Carmel 35, Penn 17
Brunt: Carmel 28, Penn 14
6A Semistate: Center Grove (11-1) at Warren Central (9-3)
Dragash: Center Grove 28, Warren Central 21
Brunt: Center Grove 35, Warren Central 14
5A Regional: Westfield (10-1) at Fort Wayne Snider (9-2)
Westfield plays a much tougher schedule. The Shamrocks have a win over Hamilton Southeastern, a ranked 6A team, and took Fishers to overtime in their only loss. Snider was crushed 38-0 by Penn earlier in the season, an indicator of how the Panthers perform against elite competition. Snider has struggled to win its past four games. Though they were wins, the dominance to give the impression that Snider can handle a machine like Westfield’s isn’t there.
Dragash: Westfield 21, FW Snider 14
Brunt: Westfield 35, FW Snider 14
5A Regional: Indianapolis Cathedral (7-5) at Whiteland (9-2)
Whiteland lost to Center Grove 56-0 earlier this season. Cathedral plays teams similar to Center Grove on a regular basis and competes well. Cathedral’s Terry McLaurin has been quiet lately. It’s time to get that Mr. Football drum beating again.
Dragash: Cathedral 35, Whiteland 21
Brunt: Cathedral 49, Whiteland 20
4A Regional: Indianapolis Chatard (9-3) at New Palestine (12-0)
New Palestine has played a pretty good schedule and beaten some solid teams. Chatard has tradition on its side, but the Trojans have shown some vulnerability at times. Chatard’s 1-2 punch of Sam Jost and Alex Kimack will be tough for New Palestine to handle. New Palestine quarterback Jake Luker is impressive — he has passed for 2,416 yards and 31 touchdowns and rushed for just over 1,000 yards and 20 more scores.
Dragash: Chatard 28, New Palestine 24
Brunt: New Palestine 28, Chatard 21
3A Regional: Indianapolis Brebeuf (9-3) at Guerin Catholic (5-7)
First, let’s congratulate Guerin. The Golden Eagles started the season 1-7 and have won their last four games. Now, let’s talk about Friday. Brebeuf running back LeVante’ Bellamy is emerging as one of the state’s best players. He ran for 299 yards and four touchdowns last week in a 42-21 win over Tri-West. With 1,970 yards rushing this season, he’s one of the frontrunners for Mr. Football in 2014.
Dragash: Brebeuf 38, Guerin 14
Brunt: Brebeuf 42, Guerin 14
2A Regional: Indianapolis Ritter (10-2) vs Indianapolis Scecina (10-2), to be played at Beech Grove
The difference here is Ritter quarterback Jake Purichia’s playmaking ability. He is one of the best quarterbacks in Indiana, regardless of class. He has 35 touchdown passes and just five interceptions and can run as well.
Dragash: Ritter 38, Scecina 35
Brunt: Ritter 42, Scecina 28
Follow Craig Dragash on Twitter: www.twitter.com/cdragash_isl.
Follow Cliff Brunt on Twitter: www.twitter.com/cliffbrunt_isl.
